考虑风电出力相关性的随机生产模拟方法研究
发布时间：2018-09-11 20:30
【摘要】：随着风电资源在全世界范围内的大规模利用,各国家地区的电力系统风电渗透率逐步提高,具有随机性波动性特点的风电大规模接入给电力系统带来的影响日益明显,同时由于各类限制因素导致的弃风问题也十分突出。电力系统随机生产模拟这一分析工具可以对系统中长期运行的经济性可靠性进行模拟评估,有助于分析风电接入对电力系统的影响以及系统消纳风电的情况。但目前针对含风电电力系统的随机生产模拟方法难以兼顾风电相关性与运行的时序性,导致模拟结果难以准确反映系统实际状况。针对这一问题,论文着重对考虑风电相关性的随机生产模拟方法展开研究。首先对风电场出力建立其概率性时序模型。对于出力具有相关性的若干风电场,选择某一基准风电场并依据其风速历史数据统计特性建立其风速的概率性时序模型;再根据该风电场风速与各风电场出力的联合分布律得到风电场出力关于基准风电场风速的条件概率;在风速概率性时序模型的基础上结合风电出力的条件概率,最终得到可以体现相关性的各个风电场出力的概率型时序模型。随后对电力系统内各电源建立概率性时序模型并进行随机生产模拟。引入通用生成函数这一数学工具,对常规电源考虑随机故障影响建立其通用生成函数模型;对风电场则基于所建立的风电场出力概率型时序模型,建立体现风电场相关性的通用生成函数模型。利用通用生成函数运算规则对电源逐个合并等效,得到系统等效电源的通用生成函数模型。将系统等效电源与负荷在时间轴上进行供需匹配,得到各电源的发电量以及系统可靠性指标,完成随机生产模拟计算。最后提出基于通用生成函数的电力系统风电消纳能力以及弃风情况评估方法。在前文随机生产模拟计算方法基础上计算得到系统每日最小技术出力的概率分布并建立其通用生成函数模型,与负荷以及风电出力的通用生成函数模型进行组合运算,得到系统风电消纳能力的概率分布以及弃风电量期望值的计算结果。另外根据算例结果提出提高系统风电消纳能力的建议。整个研究提出的随机生产模拟通用生成函数方法可以兼顾风电相关性与系统运行的时序性,模拟结果对系统实际运行情况的反映更加详实准确,能对风电接入电力系统的规划与运行提供方法支撑。
[Abstract]:With the large-scale utilization of wind power resources all over the world, the wind power penetration rate of power systems in various countries and regions is gradually increasing. The impact of large-scale wind power integration with random fluctuation characteristics on power systems is becoming increasingly obvious. At the same time, the problem of wind abandonment caused by various restrictive factors is also very prominent. Production simulation is an analytical tool that can simulate and evaluate the economic reliability of the long-term operation of the power system. It is helpful to analyze the impact of wind power integration on the power system and the situation of wind power absorption. To solve this problem, this paper focuses on the study of stochastic production simulation method considering wind power correlation. First, the probabilistic time series model of wind farm output is established. The probability time series model of wind speed is established based on the statistical characteristics of historical data, and then the conditional probability of wind farm output with respect to the reference wind farm wind speed is obtained according to the joint distribution law of wind speed and wind farm output. Then, the probabilistic time series model of each power source in the power system is established and the stochastic production simulation is carried out. The general generation function is introduced as a mathematical tool to establish a general generation function model for the conventional power source considering the effect of stochastic faults. For the wind farm, the general generation function model is established based on the established wind farm. A general generating function model reflecting the correlation of wind farms is established by using the output probability time series model. The general generating function model of the equivalent power supply is obtained by combining the power sources one by one according to the operation rules of the general generating function. Finally, a general generating function based method for evaluating the wind power absorption capacity and wind abandonment is proposed. The probability distribution of the minimum daily technical output of the system is calculated on the basis of the previous stochastic production simulation method and its general generating function model is established. The general generating function model of load and wind power output is combined to calculate the probability distribution of wind power absorption capacity and the expected value of abandoned wind power. Considering the correlation of wind power and the timing of system operation, the simulation results reflect the actual operation of the system more accurately, and can provide method support for the planning and operation of wind power integration into power system.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM614
[Abstract]:With the large-scale utilization of wind power resources all over the world, the wind power penetration rate of power systems in various countries and regions is gradually increasing. The impact of large-scale wind power integration with random fluctuation characteristics on power systems is becoming increasingly obvious. At the same time, the problem of wind abandonment caused by various restrictive factors is also very prominent. Production simulation is an analytical tool that can simulate and evaluate the economic reliability of the long-term operation of the power system. It is helpful to analyze the impact of wind power integration on the power system and the situation of wind power absorption. To solve this problem, this paper focuses on the study of stochastic production simulation method considering wind power correlation. First, the probabilistic time series model of wind farm output is established. The probability time series model of wind speed is established based on the statistical characteristics of historical data, and then the conditional probability of wind farm output with respect to the reference wind farm wind speed is obtained according to the joint distribution law of wind speed and wind farm output. Then, the probabilistic time series model of each power source in the power system is established and the stochastic production simulation is carried out. The general generation function is introduced as a mathematical tool to establish a general generation function model for the conventional power source considering the effect of stochastic faults. For the wind farm, the general generation function model is established based on the established wind farm. A general generating function model reflecting the correlation of wind farms is established by using the output probability time series model. The general generating function model of the equivalent power supply is obtained by combining the power sources one by one according to the operation rules of the general generating function. Finally, a general generating function based method for evaluating the wind power absorption capacity and wind abandonment is proposed. The probability distribution of the minimum daily technical output of the system is calculated on the basis of the previous stochastic production simulation method and its general generating function model is established. The general generating function model of load and wind power output is combined to calculate the probability distribution of wind power absorption capacity and the expected value of abandoned wind power. Considering the correlation of wind power and the timing of system operation, the simulation results reflect the actual operation of the system more accurately, and can provide method support for the planning and operation of wind power integration into power system.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM614
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