一种满足风险完备性的调度操作风险量化评估方法
发布时间：2018-10-11 07:23
【摘要】：为对某一调度操作可能造成的系统风险进行数值化的评价,将风险理论引入调度操作风险量化评估中,提出一种满足风险完备性的评估方法。该方法充分考虑了调度操作风险的危害后果和发生概率,在传统调度操作风险危害评价的基础上,运用N-1最优潮流模型计算切负荷指标,并考虑关注度和社会时期的影响作用,对风险危害值进行校正。此外,计及调度操作过程中影响风险可能性的多维不确定因子,分析并建立风险概率评价体系,用于评估调度操作风险的发生概率。基于风险危害和风险概率得出最终的调度操作风险。基于IEEE30节点系统的计算结果表明,该方法通过评估各调度操作步骤的风险情况,可在调度操作执行前进行风险预演,辅助调度运行人员在下令前对操作可能引起的各类风险预先制定预控策略,能够有效降低调度操作的风险水平,维护电力系统的安全稳定运行。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the system risk caused by a scheduling operation numerically, the risk theory is introduced into the risk quantification evaluation of scheduling operation, and an evaluation method to satisfy the risk completeness is proposed. In this method, the harmful consequences and occurrence probability of dispatching operation risk are fully considered. On the basis of traditional hazard evaluation of dispatching operation risk, the load shedding index is calculated by using N-1 optimal power flow model, and the influence of attention and social period is considered. The risk hazard value is corrected. In addition, the risk probability evaluation system is analyzed and established to evaluate the occurrence probability of the scheduling operation risk, taking into account the multidimensional uncertainty factors that affect the risk possibility in the process of scheduling operation. Based on the risk hazard and risk probability, the final scheduling operation risk is obtained. The calculation results based on IEEE30 node system show that the method can perform risk preview before the execution of the scheduling operation by evaluating the risk of each scheduling operation step. In order to reduce the risk level of dispatching operation and maintain the safe and stable operation of power system, the auxiliary dispatcher can make a pre-control strategy for all kinds of risks caused by operation before ordering.
【作者单位】： 广西电网公司电力调度控制中心;
【基金】：广西电网公司科技项目(GXKJXM20151051) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228205)~~
【分类号】：TM73
本文编号：2263342
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the system risk caused by a scheduling operation numerically, the risk theory is introduced into the risk quantification evaluation of scheduling operation, and an evaluation method to satisfy the risk completeness is proposed. In this method, the harmful consequences and occurrence probability of dispatching operation risk are fully considered. On the basis of traditional hazard evaluation of dispatching operation risk, the load shedding index is calculated by using N-1 optimal power flow model, and the influence of attention and social period is considered. The risk hazard value is corrected. In addition, the risk probability evaluation system is analyzed and established to evaluate the occurrence probability of the scheduling operation risk, taking into account the multidimensional uncertainty factors that affect the risk possibility in the process of scheduling operation. Based on the risk hazard and risk probability, the final scheduling operation risk is obtained. The calculation results based on IEEE30 node system show that the method can perform risk preview before the execution of the scheduling operation by evaluating the risk of each scheduling operation step. In order to reduce the risk level of dispatching operation and maintain the safe and stable operation of power system, the auxiliary dispatcher can make a pre-control strategy for all kinds of risks caused by operation before ordering.
【作者单位】： 广西电网公司电力调度控制中心;
【基金】：广西电网公司科技项目(GXKJXM20151051) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228205)~~
【分类号】：TM73
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