甘肃省新能源消纳的分析模型与措施研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 14:35
【摘要】：随着气候变化、空气污染等问题的日益凸显,石油、煤炭、天然气等不可再生的化石能源供给与需求矛盾的日益突出,世界各国都在追寻绿色清洁、低碳环保的发展方式,风电和光伏发电拥有资源丰富,发展迅速、技术成熟等优势,是世界新能源研究领域的热点。随着2006年《可再生能源法》的发布以及后续一系列支持新能源发展的政策出台,我国新能源产业发展迅猛,并网装机规模、发电量持续快速增长,电源结构不断优化,到2016年,中国已经成为世界风电装机容量第一,光伏装机容量和新增容量第一的国家,但是随着全国经济下行压力变大,电力需求增速变缓,新能源的消纳问题也逐渐恶化。在我国“三北”地区(包括华北、东北和西北地区),“弃风”和“弃光”问题尤为严重。其中,甘肃省作为典型的“三北”地区省份,其问题非常具有代表性。以风电和光伏发电为代表,本文在国内外促进新能源消纳途径研究现状基础上分析了甘肃省的新能源消纳现状,分别从省内调峰能力,装机容量、外送通道以及相关机制方面总结了甘肃省弃风弃光的形成原因;同时,本文指出目前甘肃省采取的诸如大用户直接交易、自备电厂发电权交易以及外送交易等促进新能源消纳措施效果不佳,没有从实质上解决新能源的消纳问题;然后,在相关文献基础上,本文针对甘肃省内地消纳和跨省外送两种消纳途径创新性地建立了基于需求侧响应的新能源消纳模型和风光火联合外送模型,结合甘肃省的电源结构、日常负荷、外送约束等数据,以社会效益最大化为目标函数,用lingo等软件编程,在不同的场景下求出最优解,并从各个角度对甘肃省新能源消纳效果进行分析,结果显示不同场景中,两种模型都在不同程度上促进了新能源消纳,就地消纳措施在夏季最有效,与火电联合外送措施在冬季表现更有效,因此两种消纳措施在不同场景中存在一定的互补特性;最后,本文综合两种模型,建立了包含需求侧响应、就地消纳和外送消纳的甘肃省新能源消纳优化模型,对不同的季节场景进行详细的分析,在追求社会效益最大化的前提下,达到科学地分配就地消纳和外送消纳的目的,对甘肃省乃至全国新能源消纳有一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly prominent problems of climate change and air pollution, the contradiction between the supply and demand of non-renewable fossil energy, such as oil, coal and natural gas, has become increasingly prominent. Countries all over the world are pursuing the development of green and clean, low-carbon environmental protection. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation have rich resources, rapid development, mature technology and other advantages, it is a hot spot in the field of new energy research in the world. With the release of the Renewable Energy Law in 2006 and the promulgation of a series of policies to support the development of new energy, the new energy industry in China has developed rapidly, the scale of grid connection and installation, the continuous rapid growth of electricity generation, the continuous optimization of power supply structure, and the continuous optimization of power supply structure by 2016. China has become the world's largest wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity and new capacity of the first country, but as the national economic downward pressure becomes greater, the growth rate of electricity demand becomes slower, and the problem of new energy consumption is getting worse. In the "three north" areas of China (including North, Northeast and Northwest China), the problems of "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light" are especially serious. Among them, Gansu Province as a typical "three north" provinces, its problems are very representative. Taking wind power and photovoltaic power generation as the representative, this paper analyzes the current situation of new energy consumption in Gansu Province on the basis of domestic and international research on the ways to promote new energy consumption, respectively from the peak-shaving capacity and installed capacity of the province. This paper summarizes the causes of the abandonment of wind and light in Gansu Province, and points out the current direct transactions of large users in Gansu Province. The measures to promote new energy consumption, such as power right trading and outgoing trading of self-provided power plants, have not been effective, and have not substantially solved the problem of new energy consumption; then, on the basis of relevant literature, In this paper, a new energy absorption model based on demand-side response and a combined wind-fire transport model are established for the inland and trans-provincial ways of extinction in Gansu Province. Combined with the power supply structure and daily load of Gansu Province, the new energy consumption model and the combined wind-fire transport model are established in this paper. Taking the social benefit maximization as the objective function and using lingo and other software to program, the optimal solution is obtained under different scenarios, and the effects of new energy consumption in Gansu Province are analyzed from various angles. The results show that in different scenarios, The two models promote the new energy consumption in different degrees. The in-situ absorption measures are the most effective in summer, and the combined outputting measures with thermal power are more effective in winter. Therefore, the two kinds of absorption measures have some complementary characteristics in different scenarios. Finally, this paper synthesizes two kinds of models, establishes the Gansu Province new energy absorption optimization model which includes the demand side response, the local absorption and the outgoing energy absorption, carries on the detailed analysis to the different seasonal scene, under the premise of pursuing the social benefit maximization, To achieve the purpose of scientific distribution of local and outward absorption, it has a certain guiding role for Gansu province and even the whole country in new energy consumption.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61
[Abstract]:With the increasingly prominent problems of climate change and air pollution, the contradiction between the supply and demand of non-renewable fossil energy, such as oil, coal and natural gas, has become increasingly prominent. Countries all over the world are pursuing the development of green and clean, low-carbon environmental protection. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation have rich resources, rapid development, mature technology and other advantages, it is a hot spot in the field of new energy research in the world. With the release of the Renewable Energy Law in 2006 and the promulgation of a series of policies to support the development of new energy, the new energy industry in China has developed rapidly, the scale of grid connection and installation, the continuous rapid growth of electricity generation, the continuous optimization of power supply structure, and the continuous optimization of power supply structure by 2016. China has become the world's largest wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity and new capacity of the first country, but as the national economic downward pressure becomes greater, the growth rate of electricity demand becomes slower, and the problem of new energy consumption is getting worse. In the "three north" areas of China (including North, Northeast and Northwest China), the problems of "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light" are especially serious. Among them, Gansu Province as a typical "three north" provinces, its problems are very representative. Taking wind power and photovoltaic power generation as the representative, this paper analyzes the current situation of new energy consumption in Gansu Province on the basis of domestic and international research on the ways to promote new energy consumption, respectively from the peak-shaving capacity and installed capacity of the province. This paper summarizes the causes of the abandonment of wind and light in Gansu Province, and points out the current direct transactions of large users in Gansu Province. The measures to promote new energy consumption, such as power right trading and outgoing trading of self-provided power plants, have not been effective, and have not substantially solved the problem of new energy consumption; then, on the basis of relevant literature, In this paper, a new energy absorption model based on demand-side response and a combined wind-fire transport model are established for the inland and trans-provincial ways of extinction in Gansu Province. Combined with the power supply structure and daily load of Gansu Province, the new energy consumption model and the combined wind-fire transport model are established in this paper. Taking the social benefit maximization as the objective function and using lingo and other software to program, the optimal solution is obtained under different scenarios, and the effects of new energy consumption in Gansu Province are analyzed from various angles. The results show that in different scenarios, The two models promote the new energy consumption in different degrees. The in-situ absorption measures are the most effective in summer, and the combined outputting measures with thermal power are more effective in winter. Therefore, the two kinds of absorption measures have some complementary characteristics in different scenarios. Finally, this paper synthesizes two kinds of models, establishes the Gansu Province new energy absorption optimization model which includes the demand side response, the local absorption and the outgoing energy absorption, carries on the detailed analysis to the different seasonal scene, under the premise of pursuing the social benefit maximization, To achieve the purpose of scientific distribution of local and outward absorption, it has a certain guiding role for Gansu province and even the whole country in new energy consumption.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61
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相关期刊论文 前10条
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4 时t熇，
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