基于Copula模型的泾河南岸黄土滑坡危险性分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 04:00

本文关键词：基于Copula模型的泾河南岸黄土滑坡危险性分析　出处：《长安大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国黄土地区滑坡地质灾害频发,开展滑坡危险性评价工作对区域滑坡的预测预报、防灾减灾任务具有极其重要的理论与实际意义。目前,滑坡危险性分析主要在假设危险性评价因素间相互独立的前提下进行。然而在研究滑坡时,发现危险性评价因素之间存在一定的相关性,故而用危险性评价因素简单相乘来计算滑坡危险性的传统方法便不适用了。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,以泾河南岸泾阳地区黄土滑坡为研究对象,结合野外调查资料及室内土工试验结果,在考虑危险性因子间具有相关性的前提下,基于Copula函数模型采用半定性—半定量的方法对区域滑坡危险性进行了预测分析。主要研究成果如下:(1)提出了一套适用于该地区的滑坡危险性评价体系。依据滑坡危险性评价原理及原则,根据研究区的地质环境条件、已发生滑坡的分布特征及滑坡发育的规模,选取蒋刘—付家村地区为研究区,以划分线段的方式进行了危险性分区。其中,对于中型滑坡,选取已发生的滑坡平均后壁宽度350m作为分段长度;小型滑坡其分段长度为140m。最后,通过分析实地调查情况确定影响范围。(2)量化和确定危险性评价指标。基于野外调查资料,根据经验公式计算出滑坡规模指标(M);通过滑坡发生的时间分析,利用泊松模型确定滑坡发生的频率(T);利用GEO-SLPOE软件计算了边坡的稳定系数,结合稳定系数确定地形地貌、水文条件、土地利用及滑坡历史情况对易发性(S)的影响程度,运用打分法计算易发值。(3)建立了滑坡危险性计算模型。分析了滑坡规模、频率、易发性的相关性,建立了二元Copula函数模型作为边缘分布及联合分布的连接函数,从而确定了考虑危险性因素具有相关性的滑坡危险性评价数学模型。(4)计算了研究区滑坡危险性并绘制了危险性分区图。通过现有滑坡稳定性和滑坡变形记录资料,考虑人类工程活动、潜在滑动类型、滑移距离和影响范围对边坡的影响,根据滑坡危险性计算结果,将蒋刘—付家村地区划分为低危险区、中危险区、高危险区与极高危险区,并绘制了危险性分区图。
[Abstract]:Landslide geological disasters in Loess Area in China to carry out frequent landslide hazard assessment of regional landslide prediction, has extremely important theoretical and practical significance for disaster prevention and mitigation tasks. At present, a prerequisite for risk analysis of landslide hazard assessment on the assumption that the main factors independent of each other. However, in the study of landslide, we found that there are some the correlation between risk assessment and risk evaluation factors, using traditional methods to calculate the multiplication factor of landslide danger will not apply. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, in the Loess Area Jinghe South Jingyang landslide as the research object, combined with field survey and indoor soil test results, considering the correlation has the risk factors under the Copula model by using the method of semi qualitative semi quantitative to regional landslide hazard forecast based on Analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) put forward a set of suitable for landslide hazard assessment system in the area. On the basis of landslide hazard assessment principle and principle, according to the geological conditions, the distribution characteristics of the landslide has occurred and the scale of landslides, Jiang Liu - Fu Jia Cun selected as the study area to divide the line, the way of risk zoning. Among them, the landslides, landslides have occurred after the selection of the average wall width of 350m as the length of the section length; small landslide is 140m. finally, through the analysis of investigation situation determine the impact range. (2) to quantify and determine the risk assessment index of field investigation. Based on the data, calculate the landslide scale index according to the empirical formula (M); the occurrence time of a landslide analysis, determine the frequency of the occurrence of landslide by using Poisson model (T); the slope stability is calculated by using GEO-SLPOE software Fixed coefficient, determine the topography, combined with the stability coefficient of hydrological conditions, land use and history of landslide susceptibility (S) influence, calculate the prone value using the scoring method. (3) established the calculation model of landslide hazard analysis. The landslide scale, frequency, correlation of susceptibility, established two yuan Copula function model as the link function of marginal distribution and joint distribution, so as to determine the landslide risk evaluation mathematical model considering the risk factors associated with. (4) to calculate the landslide risk research area and draw the risk zoning map. The deformation records existing landslide and landslide, considering human engineering activities and the potential sliding type, impact sliding distance and range of influence on the slope. According to the calculation result of landslide hazard, the Liu Jiang - Fu Jia Cun region is divided into low risk areas, medium risk area, high risk and extremely high risk area Of these, and draw the risk zoning map.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P642.22

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