甘肃陇南地区地震灾害人口风险评估

发布时间：2018-02-23 01:38

本文关键词： 地震灾害人口风险层次分析法陇南地区　出处：《自然灾害学报》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在前人研究的基础上,建立了甘肃陇南地区地震灾害人口风险评估指标体系,运用层次分析法对陇南地区地震灾害人口风险进行了评价。研究结果表明:陇南地区地震灾害人口风险程度随烈度的增大而逐步增大。烈度8度下陇南地区开始出现人口高风险区,其面积占陇南地区总面积的2%;烈度9度下有23.5%面积的区域处于地震灾害人口高风险区;烈度10度下有33.4%的区域人口受到高地震灾害风险的威胁。在行政区划上,烈度8度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是宕昌县,约占区县面积的8.18%;烈度9度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是宕昌县,约占区县面积的44.37%;烈度10度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是西和县,约占区县面积的57.3%。利用汶川地震的实例进行了验证,表明建立的模型具有较高的可信度。
[Abstract]:On the basis of previous studies, a population risk assessment index system for earthquake disasters in Longnan region of Gansu Province was established. The population risk of earthquake disaster in Longnan region is evaluated by AHP. The results show that the population risk of earthquake disaster in Longnan region increases gradually with the increase of intensity. High risk population areas, Its area accounts for 2% of the total area of Longnan region; 23.5% areas under the intensity of 9 degrees are in the high risk area of earthquake disaster population; 33.4% of the area population under the intensity of 10 degrees are threatened by the high risk of earthquake disaster. The largest area of high risk area under intensity of 8 degrees is Dangchang County, which accounts for about 8.18 of the area of district county, and the area of high risk area of high risk area under intensity of 9 degrees is Dangchang County. The area of high risk area at 10 degrees is Xihe county, which accounts for 57.3% of county area. The example of Wenchuan earthquake is used to validate the model, which shows that the established model has high reliability.
【作者单位】：中国地震局兰州地震研究所;中国地震局地震预测研究所;中国地震局地球物理研究所;
【基金】：甘肃省青年科技基金计划(145RJYA289) 甘肃省科技支撑项目(1504FKCA065) 中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项(2015IESLZ06)~~
【分类号】：P315.9

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