基于水土耦合机制的流域滑坡预报研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 22:21

本文关键词： 滑坡预报水土耦合 CRESLIDE模型 CREST模型月河　出处：《气象》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：降水诱发型滑坡灾害涉及水文与土壤失稳过程,是个非常复杂的预报难题。本研究应用CRESLIDE(Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and Slope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium)模型,研究基于水土耦合机制的流域滑坡预报。模型输入格点降水由基于流域逐小时加密雨量站的反距离权重法插值获取;基于GIS、DEM和遥感技术,提取滑坡流域下垫面信息;采用分布式水文模型CREST模拟预报出滑坡研究区域的流域水文过程,作为中间变量驱动滑坡模型SLIDE,实现降水诱发型滑坡的预报。选择陕南月河流域2012年7月3—5日降水诱发型滑坡过程进行模拟预报,验证模型的适用性。结果表明,基于CRESLIDE模型的流域水土耦合滑坡预报模型在滑坡时空预报上表现稳定;通过ROC曲线分析CRESLIDE模型取得的特异性(87.8%)和敏感性(52.9%)均较好;本研究基于流域水土耦合机制研究滑坡机理预报,耦合了流域水文过程与土力学过程,使得流域水文模拟更为合理,在滑坡的预报与早期预警中表现良好,对同类滑坡预报有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The precipitation induced landslide is a very complicated problem in predicting hydrology and soil instability. The CRESLIDE(Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and Slope-Infiltration-Distributed equilibrium model is used in this study. Based on the coupling mechanism of soil and water, the model input lattice precipitation is obtained by the inverse distance weight interpolation based on the hourly precipitation station, and the underlying surface information is extracted based on GIS Dem and remote sensing technology. A distributed hydrological model (CREST) is used to simulate and forecast the hydrological process in the landslide study area. As an intermediate variable driven landslide model, SLIDE is used to predict the precipitation induced landslide. The process of precipitation induced landslide is simulated and forecasted from July 2012 to July 2012 in the Yuehe River Basin of southern Shaanxi, and the applicability of the model is verified. The coupled landslide prediction model based on CRESLIDE model is stable in time and space prediction of landslide, and the specificity and sensitivity of CRESLIDE model obtained by ROC curve analysis are good. Based on the coupling mechanism of soil and water, landslide mechanism prediction is studied in this paper. The hydrological process and soil mechanics process are coupled, which makes basin hydrological simulation more reasonable and performs well in landslide prediction and early warning. It can be used for reference for the similar landslide prediction.
【作者单位】：国家气象中心;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水文水资源学院;陕西省气候中心;中国地质环境监测院(国土资源部地质灾害应急技术指导中心);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51509043,C1775111) 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702、2016YFC0402701) 中国气象局首批青年英才计划(2014-2017);中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)06] 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015828514) 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室基金(20165042212) 国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目共同资助
【分类号】：P642.22

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