大庆断褶带最大潜在地震发生概率评估

发布时间：2018-02-27 17:53

本文关键词： 大庆长垣断褶带 G-R关系发震概率重现周期　出处：《震灾防御技术》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2011—2015年在大庆地区开展了活断层探测,查明区内北北东向断裂若干条,皆为大安-德都断裂的分支断裂,最新活动时代为Q_(1-2)。根据进一步研究发现大庆地区存在断裂褶皱变形带(以下简称断褶带)现象。断褶带与长垣隆起关系密切,分析大安-德都断裂活动是造成长垣隆起的内在动力成因。故由对大安-德都断裂各分支断裂的评价,进而引申到对断褶带地震危险性的评价是科学合理的。本文以断褶带为潜在震源区重新分析东北潜在震源区的地震空间分布概率,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,利用G-R关系预测断褶带未来100年内6.0级地震发震概率是0.039,重现周期为2500年。
[Abstract]:Active fault detection was carried out in Daqing area from 2011 to 2015, which identified several NNE faults in the area, all of which are branch faults of the Da'an Dedu fault. According to further study, the phenomenon of fault-fold deformation zone (hereinafter referred to as fault-fold zone) exists in Daqing area. The fault-fold belt is closely related to the uplift of Changyuan. The analysis of the Da-Dedu fault activity is the internal dynamic cause of the uplift of the Placanticline, so the evaluation of each branch fault of the Da-Dedu fault is made. It is scientific and reasonable to evaluate the seismic risk of fault fold belt. In this paper, the seismic spatial distribution probability of the potential source area in Northeast China is reanalyzed with the fault fold belt as the potential source area, and the method of seismic risk probability analysis is adopted. The probability of earthquake occurrence in the next 100 years of the fault-fold belt predicted by G-R relation is 0.039, and the recurrence period is 2500.
【作者单位】：黑龙江省地震局;绥化市地震局;
【基金】：中国地震局地震行业科研专项(1521044025)
【分类号】：P315

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