滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例

发布时间：2018-03-04 06:00

本文选题：降雨(降水)　切入点：滑坡　出处：《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目前已有大量不同尺度的临界降水标准对区域性滑坡进行预警,但仍存在预警空间外延性差、时间精度低、临界降水阈值不科学等问题。针对当前构建的临界降水阈值实现滑坡预警模型,以云南昭通盘河流域头寨沟为例,在研究区两个不同海拔高度位置分别布设气象站,进行了为期一年的降水观测,并比较了研究区两个不同位置的降水特征。结果表明:研究区降水梯度高达190 mm/hm,两个不同海拔位置降水变异性显著;降水持时是造成山上(2#站)与山下(1#站)次降水量差异的主要影响因素;发生小雨时2#站与1#站的降水差异性很小,但1#站发生中雨及以上的降水事件时,2#站的降水等级比1#站高1~2个等级,且有59.26%的概率会发生大雨或者暴雨;1#站为暴雨时,2#站100.00%概率为暴雨甚至大暴雨;2#站与1#站夜间降水均大于白昼,且强降水事件多发生于夜间。
[Abstract]:At present, there are a large number of critical precipitation standards of different scales for early warning of regional landslides, but there are still poor spatial ductility and low time accuracy. The critical precipitation threshold is not scientific. In view of the landslide warning model of the current critical precipitation threshold, taking the Tou Zhaigou Valley of the Panhe River in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province as an example, two meteorological stations are set up at two different altitude positions in the study area. The precipitation observation was conducted for one year and the precipitation characteristics of two different locations in the study area were compared. The results show that the precipitation gradient in the study area is as high as 190 mm / hm.The variability of precipitation at two different altitudes is significant. The precipitation duration is the main factor that causes the difference of precipitation between the two stations) and the precipitation difference between the station and the 1# station is very small, and the precipitation duration is the main factor that causes the difference of precipitation between the two stations, and the precipitation duration is the main factor that causes the difference of precipitation between the two stations. However, when the precipitation events of moderate rain or above occurred at the 1# station, the precipitation grade of the station was 1 ~ 2 grades higher than that of the 1# station. There are 59.26% probability of heavy rain or 100.00% probability of heavy rain or heavy rain. The probability of heavy rain and heavy rainstorm at night is that the precipitation at night is higher than that in day, and the heavy rainfall events usually occur at night.
【作者单位】：昆明理工大学土木系;西南交通大学地质工程系;昆明理工大学地球科学系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(U1502232) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20135314110005)~~
【分类号】：P426.616;P642.22

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