基于钻孔资料的耦合马尔可夫链水平方向转移概率矩阵估计

发布时间：2018-03-13 00:31

本文选题：耦合马尔可夫链　切入点：地层变异　出处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：地层变异在实际滑坡中广泛存在,其表现为不同类型岩土材料的互相嵌套或一种类型岩土体在另一种较均质岩土体中的随机分布.岩土工程实践中仍缺乏一种有效的地层变异模拟方法.为此,搜集了不同地区的钻孔资料,检验了土体状态转移的一阶马尔可夫性.提出了一种实用的基于钻孔数据的耦合马尔可夫链水平方向转移概率矩阵估计方法.利用给定的水平方向转移概率矩阵进行耦合马尔科夫链模拟以产生虚拟钻孔,通过比较给定的水平方向转移概率矩阵和利用虚拟钻孔估计的水平方向转移概率矩阵评估了所提方法的有效性.最后,利用澳大利亚珀斯市的钻孔资料进行了水平方向转移概率矩阵的估计.结果表明,土体状态转移的一阶马尔可夫性在现实中是广泛存在的;当给定的转移概率矩阵对角占优(矩阵的对角线元素大于非对角元素之和)程度较高时,估计的水平方向转移概率矩阵和给定值有较好的吻合.所提方法使耦合马尔科夫链模型能被有效地用于地层变异的模拟,为在岩土工程中考虑地层变异奠定了基础.
[Abstract]:The formation variation is widespread in the actual landslide. It is manifested by the nesting of different types of rock and soil materials or the random distribution of one type of rock and soil mass in another homogeneous rock and soil mass. There is still a lack of an effective method for simulation of formation variation in geotechnical engineering. We collected borehole data from different areas, The first order Markov property of soil state transfer is tested. A practical method for estimating the horizontal direction transition probability matrix of coupled Markov chains based on borehole data is proposed. The given horizontal direction transition probability matrix is used. Coupled Markov chain simulation to generate virtual boreholes, The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the given horizontal direction transition probability matrix with the horizontal direction transfer probability matrix estimated by virtual borehole. Based on the borehole data from Perth, Australia, the probability matrix of horizontal transfer is estimated. The results show that the first-order Markov property of soil state transfer exists widely in reality. When a given transition probability matrix is diagonally dominant (the diagonal element of the matrix is greater than the sum of the non-diagonal elements), The estimated horizontal direction transition probability matrix is in good agreement with the given value. The proposed method can be used to simulate the formation variation effectively, which lays a foundation for considering the formation variation in geotechnical engineering.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室武汉大学水利水电学院;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51225903) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2011CB013502) 国家自然科学基金项目(51329901,51579190)
【分类号】：O211.62;TU43

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