自然灾害的经济影响研究——以汶川大地震为例

发布时间：2018-03-19 21:21

本文选题：自然灾害　切入点：经济影响　出处：《科研管理》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国传统的经济影响评估通常关注灾害所造成的直接经济损失和人员伤亡,而忽略其间接经济影响和时间维度上的变化,本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了汶川地震对四川省GDP所造成的影响。首先,论文根据索罗增长模型分析了地震发生后灾区的可能增长趋势;然后,通过柯布-道格拉斯生产函数及时间序列方法预测出若不发生地震时四川省的GDP,通过"有灾"时的实际值与"无灾"时的预测值进行对比。研究发现震后的恢复重建政策对四川经济发挥了积极有效作用,特别是长期来看拉动了四川省GDP的较快增长。
[Abstract]:Traditional economic impact assessment in China usually pays attention to direct economic losses and casualties caused by disasters, while neglecting its indirect economic impact and changes in time dimension. This paper analyzes the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on GDP in Sichuan Province from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Firstly, according to the Solow growth model, the paper analyzes the possible growth trend of disaster areas after the earthquake. Through the method of Cobb-Douglas production function and time series method, the GDPs of Sichuan Province are predicted if there is no earthquake, and the actual value of "disaster" is compared with the predicted value of "disaster free". It is found that the recovery after earthquake is achieved. The reconstruction policy has played a positive and effective role in Sichuan's economy. In particular, the long-term pull the rapid growth of GDP in Sichuan Province.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;山西师范大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“我国自然灾害的经济影响研究-以汶川大地震为例“(41101513,2012-2015)
【分类号】：P315.9

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