地震应急物资需求预测的模糊案例推理技术

发布时间：2018-04-05 00:35

本文选题：应急物资　切入点：需求预测　出处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年02期

【摘要】：地震发生后,及时迅速地应急响应是提升应急救援效率、降低震害损失的重要工作之一,而作为震后灾区应急响应前提和基础的物资需求预测是急需解决的关键问题之一。考虑到震后灾区信息贫乏的特点,引入1种基于模糊案例推理的震后物资需求预测技术。首先,在对已有案例库分析总结的基础上,提取若干影响震后物资需求的地震关键特征属性,通过引入模糊集合的概念,建立地震特征模糊集合;其次,计算新旧案例具体特征属性值对于模糊集的隶属度,为了度量新旧案例之间的相似程度,计算基于新旧案例特征属性权重的修正测度贴近度,贴近度最大者代表新旧案例之间的最佳匹配;最后,使用1个实际案例展示技术的具体应用过程,得到与新案例最近似的已有参考案例,为灾后应急救援提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:It is one of the important tasks to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue and reduce the damage after earthquake. As the premise and foundation of emergency response, the material demand prediction is one of the key problems that need to be solved urgently.Considering the lack of information in the disaster areas after the earthquake, a kind of forecasting technology based on fuzzy case-based reasoning is introduced in this paper.First of all, on the basis of analyzing and summarizing the existing case base, we extract some key attributes of seismic characteristics that affect the demand of post-earthquake materials, and establish the fuzzy set of seismic characteristics by introducing the concept of fuzzy set.In order to measure the similarity between new and old cases, the modified measure closeness degree based on the weight of feature attributes of new and old cases is calculated to calculate the membership degree of the specific feature attribute value of the new and old cases to the fuzzy set, and to measure the similarity between the new and old cases.The greatest degree of closeness represents the best match between the old and the new cases. Finally, a practical case is used to show the concrete application process of the technology, and a reference case is obtained, which is similar to the new case, and provides a reference for post-disaster emergency rescue.
【作者单位】：防灾科技学院经济管理系;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务专项资金-创新团队资助计划(ZY20160103)
【分类号】：P315.9

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