汾渭盆地地震灾害时空特征及相关因子分析

发布时间：2018-04-23 04:34

本文选题：地震灾害 + 可公度　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：灾害具有向人性,地震灾害因其预测难度大,造成的死亡人数排在各类自然灾害的首位,造成的经济损失不可估量。汾渭盆地是华北地震构造区的主要地震活动带之一,历史地震活动强烈且人口密度集中,研究该区地震灾害时空特征具有深远的意义,在一定程度上能够减轻地震害的程度。本文选取汾渭盆地作为研究区域,对其历史中强地震时空特征进行分析；依据该带呈“S”形雁列式展布且地震能具有分区性特点,将汾渭盆地划分为北段、中段、南段三个地震带来分别研究。对不同地震带1900年以来发震时间和震中进行时间对称性和空间对称性分析,做出时空趋势判断。并对汾渭盆地地震与其相关因子(太阳黑子活动周期、月相活动与地球自转速率变化参数)进行了初步探讨。应用的方法主要有：可公度、蝴蝶结构图、可公度结构系、空间对称性等方法。本文主要结论如下：(1)公元以来Ms≥6.0地震呈现出活跃期与平静期相间的韵律性。在经向、纬向上完成了4次回旋迁移,存在明显的东西迁移规律与南北迁移特征,判断下一次发震位置位于40°N以南,114°E以东。汾渭盆地Ms≥6.0地震多发生在朔望附近,朔日发震频率最高。(2)统计各个地震带1900年以来地震时空对称性发现：全区下一次发生Ms≥5.1地震的时间窗口期为2015年、2016年；震中大体位置为40.2°N,114°E。北段下一次发生Ms≥4.3地震时间窗口期为2016年、2021年；震中位置为114°E以西,40°N以北。中段下一次发生Ms≥4.5地震时间窗口期为2015年、2023年；震中位置为37.45°N以北,112.4°E以西。南段下一次发生Ms≥4.4地震时间窗口期为2036年、2041年；震中位置为34.3°N以北,109.4°E以东。(3)统计1900年来汾渭盆地各区地震发生年份与太阳黑子活动对应情况,发现：从地震与太阳黑子上升段、下降段相关性来看,全区在下降段发震概率较高,南段在上升段发震概率较高；从地震与极值年及附近年份相关性来看,南段在极小值年及附近年份发震的频率较大,相反,北段、中段在极大值年及附近年份发震的频率较大。从太阳黑子的单双周期分析来看,太阳黑子双周期的下降段发震频率最高,其次为单双周期的上升段。单周期的极值年发震频率要高于双周期,且单周期的谷值年发震概率较高。北段双周期极值年份发震概率高,中段与南段在单周期极值年份发震概率较高。(4)研究各个分区地震发生与月相关系,得出发生于朔望附近的地震概率中段南段北段。直观来看,1900年以来汾渭盆地地震与月相关系不是很明确,有较强的随机性。(5)研究各个分区地震发生与地球自转相关关系,得出整体而言减速期发震概率大于加速期。全区地球自转加速期与减速期发震频次基本相等；北段与中段加速期地震发生次数小于减速期；南段加速期地震发生次数大于减速期。即北段与中段减速期发震概率较大,南段加速期发震概率大。(6)鄂尔多斯地块西缘与东南缘(汾渭地震带)发震时间基本一致,地震活动基本同步。汾渭地震带发震时间大概在鄂尔多斯地块西缘地震带发震时间前后1-3a。鄂尔多斯地块西缘地震带平静期间,汾渭地震带地震发生于西缘地震带之前；活跃期间,汾渭地震带地震发生于西缘地震带之后。一定程度上说明了鄂尔多斯地块西缘地震活动与东南缘汾渭地震带活动相互作用,相互影响。该研究对丰富灾害趋势判断研究、增加灾害验证案例、指导防灾减灾提供了重要依据。
[Abstract]:The disaster caused by the earthquake disaster is difficult to predict because of the difficulty of prediction. The number of deaths caused by the earthquake is the first of all kinds of natural disasters, and the economic loss is immeasurable. The Fen Wei basin is one of the main seismic zones in the seismic tectonic area of North China. The historical earthquake activity is strong and the population density is concentrated. The study of the temporal and spatial characteristics of the earthquake disaster in this area is studied. In this paper, the Fen Wei basin is selected as the study area, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the strong earthquakes in the history are analyzed. According to the "S" shaped wild goose distribution and the zoning characteristics of the earthquake, the Fen Wei basin is divided into three earthquakes in the north, the middle and the south. The time symmetry and spatial symmetry of the seismogenic time and the epicenter of different seismic belts were analyzed, and the temporal and spatial trend was judged. The earthquakes in the Fen Wei basin and its related factors (the cycle of sunspot activity, the variation parameters of the moon phase and the rotation of the earth) were preliminarily discussed. The main application methods were as follows: The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the Ms > 6 earthquake in the ad shows the rhythms between the active period and the calmness period. 4 cycles of migration have been completed in the meridian and latitude, and there are obvious migration laws of East and West and the characteristics of the migration of the North and the south, and the next seismic location is judged. Located in the south of 40 N and east of 114 E, the earthquake of Ms > 6 in Fenwei basin occurred mostly in the vicinity of Shuo Wang, and the frequency of the earthquake was the highest. (2) the time and space symmetry of earthquakes in every seismic zone since 1900 was found: the time window period for the next earthquake of Ms more than 5.1 in the whole region was in 2015 and 2016; the epicenter was generally located at 40.2 [N], and 114 [E.] in the north section. The time window period of Ms > 4.3 earthquake occurs in 2016, 2021, the epicenter position is 114 E to the West and 40 degree N to the north. The next time of the middle section of the Ms > 4.5 earthquake time window period is 2015 and 2023; the epicenter position is 37.45 [37.45] N to the West. The next time of the south segment of the southern segment is 2036, 2041, and the epicentral position. To the north of 34.3 N and 109.4 degree E to the East. (3) statistics of the corresponding situation of the occurrence of earthquake in the Fen Wei basin in 1900 and the sunspot activity in the Fen Wei basin. It is found that the probability of the earthquake is higher in the descending section from the correlation of the rise section of the sunspot and the sunspot, and the probability of the earthquake in the south section is higher in the ascending segment, and from the earthquake and the extreme year and the nearby year. According to the correlation, the frequency of earthquakes in the south section is larger in the minimum and nearby years. On the contrary, the frequency of the earthquakes in the north and the middle reaches is greater. From the single double cycle analysis of sunspot, the frequency of the sunspot double cycle is the highest, followed by a single double cycle. The frequency of occurrence of shock is higher than that of double cycle, and the probability of annual occurrence of single cycle is higher. The probability of earthquake occurrence is high in the north segment with double cycle extremum, and the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher in the middle and southern section. (4) the relationship between the earthquake occurrence and the moon phase in each subregion is studied, and the northern section of the middle section of the middle section of the earthquake near the new moon is obtained. 1 In the past 900 years, the relationship between the earthquake and the moon phase in the Fen Wei basin is not very clear and has strong randomness. (5) to study the relationship between the earthquake occurrence and the earth rotation in each subregion, the probability of earthquake occurrence in the whole deceleration period is greater than that of the acceleration period. The frequency of birth is less than the deceleration period, and the frequency of earthquakes in the southern section is greater than that of the deceleration period. That is, the probability of earthquake occurrence in the northern and middle period is larger than that in the middle period. (6) the earthquake occurrence time of the western margin of the Ordos block is basically the same as the southeast margin (Fenwei seismic belt), and the seismic activity is basically synchronized. The earthquake occurred in the west margin of the western margin of the 1-3a. Ordos block before and after the seismicity of the west margin of the western margin of the Erdos block. The Fen Wei seismic belt earthquake occurred before the western margin seismic belt, and the Fen Wei seismic belt earthquake occurred after the west margin seismic belt during the active period. Seismic activity interaction and mutual influence, this study provides an important basis for enriching the study of disaster trend, increasing disaster verification cases, and guiding disaster prevention and mitigation.

【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.9

【参考文献】