地震早期预警系统（EEWS）“盲区”控制的若干问题

发布时间：2018-04-30 11:44

本文选题：地震早期预警 + 预警盲区　；参考：《中国地震局地球物理研究所》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：国家地震烈度速报与预警工程正在建设过程中,这个全国性、大规模的系统不仅对提升我国地震监测基础能力,而且对降低地震灾害风险都具有重要的意义。深入地研究与地震预警系统及其设计与优化相关的基本问题,将为确保这个大型系统发挥其防震减灾效益提供科学参考。在地震预警系统的设计与优化过程中,预警“盲区”是一个关键问题。本文选取国家地震烈度速报与预警工程的两个重点地震预警区,即南北地震带地区()和华北首都圈地区()作为目标研究区,对预警“盲区”所涉及的理论问题进行了系统的分析。本文试图以现代地震学为背景开展讨论,并得出以下认识:1)结合地震观测和解释实践的实际情况,本文提出了“盲区”控制的概念,并对此进行了分析。认为在围绕理论的“黑色(硬)盲区”的周围,实际上还有一个“灰色(软)盲区”,这个“软盲区”可以简单地通过提高地震台站的密度来进行控制以使其最小化。本文还提出了实际触发台站数目、台站布设密度和实际“盲区”之间的一个半定量关系,这个关系无论是对地震台网还是对地震预警系统的性能评估和质量控制可能都具有现实意义。2)地震破裂的有限性是现代地震学中一个重要的概念,其对地震预警系统的布局设计具有重要意义。本文通过一些震例的假定情形,讨论了这一问题。认为地震预警系统对于地震减灾所能发挥的作用要远大于传统地震学视角下的预期。这一观点深化了目前认为预警台站应该适当考虑不要均匀布设的认识,强调在发生大地震时,近断层区域密集布设的预警台站可能会使地震预警系统更加有效。3)能够识别近断层强震动记录的最佳识别函数(或称之为函数)具有快速报告地震破裂大小的潜在应用价值。而现实的情况是,在大部分国土上布设的强震台站是有限的。结合这一情况以及地震破裂的特点,本文讨论了一种考虑一维地震破裂传播的简化方法,这种方法基于断层几何和破裂方向性的快速检索。“盲区”的存在可能会影响这种方法的测定时间进而反过来影响地震预警系统的性能,本文对该问题也做了一些讨论。长期以来,在“盲区”的观点上认为地震预警系统一无是处(或者说是高成本效益)的观点一直是存在的。可以预料,本文的分析可能会为此带来一些别样的曙光。本文的意义旨在启发一些与“盲区”相关的“盲点”,并分析一些在现代地震学新视野下的“盲区”问题。
[Abstract]:In the process of construction of national seismic intensity and early warning engineering, this national and large-scale system not only has an important significance to improve the basic ability of earthquake monitoring in our country, but also to reduce the risk of earthquake disaster. It is necessary to study the basic problems related to the earthquake warning system and its design and optimization, which will ensure the great importance. In the design and optimization of earthquake early warning system, the early warning "blind area" is a key problem. In this paper, two key earthquake early warning areas of the national earthquake intensity quick report and early warning project, that is, the north and South seismic belt area () and the North China capital circle area () are selected as the target research area. This paper makes a systematic analysis of the theoretical problems involved in the early warning "blind area". This paper attempts to carry out a discussion on the background of modern seismology, and draws the following understanding: 1) the concept of "blind area" control is put forward in this paper, combined with the actual situation of seismic observation and interpretation practice. In fact, there is a "gray (soft) blind area" around the hard blind area. This "soft blind area" can be simply controlled by increasing the density of the seismic station to minimize it. This paper also puts forward the number of actual triggering stations, the 1.5 quantitative relation between the station layout density and the actual "blind area", which has no relationship. The theory of seismic network, performance evaluation and quality control of earthquake early warning system may have practical significance.2) the finite nature of earthquake rupture is an important concept in modern seismology. It is of great significance to the layout and design of earthquake warning system. This paper has discussed this problem through the assumption of some earthquake cases. The effect of earthquake early warning system on earthquake disaster reduction is far greater than that in the traditional seismological perspective. This view deepens the idea that early warning stations should consider properly not uniform layout, and that early warning stations in near fault areas may make earthquake early warning systems in the event of large earthquakes. More effective.3) the best recognition function (or function) that can recognize the close fault strong motion record (or function) has a potential application value to quickly report the magnitude of earthquake rupture. In reality, the strong seismic stations are limited in most of the land. A simplified method of one-dimensional seismic rupture propagation is considered. This method is based on rapid retrieval of fault geometry and rupture direction. The existence of "blind area" may affect the measurement time of this method and in turn affect the performance of earthquake warning system. This paper also discusses the problem in this paper. For a long time, the "blind area" view is also discussed. It is expected that the analysis of this paper may bring some other dawning light. The purpose of this article is to inspire some "blind spots" related to the "blind area", and to analyze some "blind areas" in the new field of modern seismology. Question.

【学位授予单位】：中国地震局地球物理研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P315.75

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