水磨镇泥石流主沟影响因子权重分析与危险性评价

发布时间：2018-05-13 01:18

本文选题：泥石流 + 影响因子　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文通过查阅以前研究学者的资料以及现场勘查,确定该研究区的区域地质环境条件和研究区主沟泥石流的基本特征,根据研究区主沟泥石流的基本特征计算了该研究区主沟以及山王庙沟和连三坡沟两条支沟的泥石流基本特征值,主要包括:泥石流流体重度、泥石流峰值流量、泥石流一次最大冲出量等,其次,作者基于层次-主成分分析法计算研究区主沟泥石流评价因子的权重值和综合权重值,首先确定该研究区主沟泥石流的影响因子,构建层次结构模型,然后再构建判断矩阵,并运用MATLAB计算判断矩阵的最大特征值及其对应的特征向量,最后计算出各个影响因子的权重值以及综合权重值。得出了该研究区泥石流主要影响因子的权重值按从大到下的顺序依次为:相对高差降雨山坡坡高主要河流地表径流地貌类型地震烈度不合理的削坡工程地质岩性建筑挤占河道距断裂带距离坡地农业耕种。这将为该研究区泥石流的预防和治理提供了很重要的思路和方向。另外,根据研究区主沟泥石流的基本特征,泥石流类型,爆发的频率等应用评估模型对研究区主沟泥石流进行危险评价,得出该研究区属于泥石流易发区,研究区的受灾体是比较危险的,泥石流造成地质灾害损失的概率非常大,而且治理非常紧迫。最后还应用FLAC3D模型在暴雨条件下对研究区主沟泥石流进行数值模拟分析,得到最危险的地方为坡脚位置,最大位移约为5.6×102m,存在很大的危险,有极大的滑移的可能性。滑移面也近似为圆弧形,倘若在研究区域内真有暴雨,这里有很大可能会爆发泥石流。因此,我们对于该研究区主沟泥石流的产生要引起高度的重视,必须尽快治理,以保护当地居民的生命安全,避免财产上的损失。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the regional geological environment conditions and the basic characteristics of the main gully debris flow in the study area are determined by referring to the previous research scholars' data and site survey. According to the basic characteristics of debris flow in the main gully of the study area, the basic characteristic values of the debris flow in the main ditch in the study area and the two branch ditches in Shanwangmiaogou and Lianshanpo gully are calculated, which mainly include: the debris flow is heavy, and the peak flow of debris flow. Secondly, based on the hierarchical principal component analysis method, the author calculates the weight value and the comprehensive weight value of the evaluation factors of the main gully debris flow in the study area, and determines the influence factors of the main gully debris flow in the study area. The hierarchical structure model is constructed, then the judgment matrix is constructed, and the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix and its corresponding eigenvector are calculated by using MATLAB. Finally, the weight values of each influence factor and the comprehensive weight value are calculated. It is concluded that the weight value of the main influencing factors of debris flow in this study area is in order from large to low: relative height difference rainfall slope height main river surface runoff geomorphology type of seismic intensity unreasonable clipping engineering geological lithology The construction occupies the river channel distance from the fault zone to the sloping land agricultural cultivation. This will provide a very important idea and direction for the prevention and control of debris flow in this research area. In addition, according to the basic characteristics of main gully debris flow in the study area, debris flow types, frequency of debris flow and so on, the risk assessment of the main ditch debris flow in the study area is carried out, and it is concluded that the study area belongs to the debris flow prone area. The disaster body in the study area is dangerous, the probability of geological disaster loss caused by debris flow is very large, and the control is very urgent. Finally, the FLAC3D model is used to simulate the debris flow of the main gully in the study area. The most dangerous place is the position of the slope foot, the maximum displacement is about 5.6 脳 10 ~ 2 m, there is a great danger and the possibility of slip is very great. The slip surface is similar to a circular arc, if there is a real rainstorm in the study area, debris flow is likely to erupt here. Therefore, we should attach great importance to the occurrence of debris flow in the main ditch in the study area, and we must treat it as soon as possible in order to protect the life safety of local residents and avoid the loss of property.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P642.23

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