陕西省汉阴县地质灾害气象预报预警

发布时间：2018-05-14 12:33

本文选题：地质灾害 + MAPGIS　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：陕西省安康市汉阴县位于陕西山区中部,南依巴山,北跨秦岭,是地质灾害较发育的地区之一。汉阴县地貌主要为山地,且山高坡陡谷深,当受到大量的降雨影响时,很容易诱发崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的发生。并且经过长期的观察和研究分析,在这些地质灾害的诱发条件(地震、降雨、构造运动、人类工程活动等)中,降雨是最直接的因素。因此,对汉阴县进行地质灾害进行气象预警预报研究十分重要。根据《汉阴县地质灾害调查与区划报告》以及地质环境背景、历史地质灾害发生情况,收集关于汉阴县的有关地质灾害背景资料;收集汉阴县历年来由于降雨所诱发的地质灾害资料。对搜集的资料进行分析后,确定汉阴县的6个评价因子(构造断裂、岩土体类型、地形地貌、人类工程活动、降雨、地灾隐患点),运用层次分析法计算各个评价因子权重,根据这些指标通过MAPGIS生成汉阴县地质灾害危险性分区。对汉阴县的14个镇根据确定的5个评价因子(人口密度、公路线密度、GDP密度、耕地密度、政府的重视程度),运用模糊评判法得出汉阴县地质灾害的易损性分区。由以上生成的汉阴县地质灾害危险性及易损性分区图,通过进行叠加计算,得到汉阴县地质灾害预警区分区。根据汉阴县历年的降雨资料,对预报降雨数据进行分析处理,得到诱发地质灾害的降雨临界值,建立耦合预报预警模型,从而得出汉阴县的地质灾害气象预报预警模型,并将其结果以地质灾害预报预警图及文字说明的方式表达出来。
[Abstract]:Hanyin County, Ankang City, Shaanxi Province, located in the middle of Shaanxi mountain area, South yaban mountain, and north across Qinling Mountains, is one of the areas with more developed geological disasters. The landform in Hanyin county is mainly mountainous and the high slope is deep. When affected by heavy rainfall, it is easy to induce landslides, landslides, mud rock flow and other geological disasters. Rainfall is the most direct factor in the induced conditions of these geological disasters (earthquake, rainfall, tectonic movement, human engineering activities, etc.). Therefore, it is very important to study the meteorological early warning and forecast of geological disasters in Hanyin county. According to the geological disaster survey and zoning report in Hanyin County, and the geological environment background, historical geology The background information about the geological disasters in Hanyin county is collected, and the geological disasters caused by rainfall in Hanyin county are collected for years. After analyzing the collected data, 6 evaluation factors of Hanyin county are determined (structural fracture, rock mass type, geomorphic geomorphology, human engineering activity, rainfall, and the hidden danger point). The weight of each evaluation factor is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). According to these indexes, the geological hazard zoning of Hanyin county is generated by MAPGIS. According to the 5 evaluation factors (population density, highway line density, GDP density, cultivated land density, the government's re view degree) of 14 towns in Hanyin County, the geological disaster in Hanyin county is obtained by fuzzy evaluation. The area of Hanyin County geological disaster early warning area is obtained by superposition calculation. According to the rainfall data of Hanyin County, the rainfall data are analyzed and processed, and the critical value of rainfall to induce geological disasters is obtained, and the coupling prediction is established. The early warning model is used to get the forecast and early warning model of the geological disaster weather forecast in Hanyin County, and the results are expressed in the way of the geological hazard prediction and early warning map and the text description.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P694

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