村镇居民生活模式模拟在地震死亡估计中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-21 11:29

  本文选题：村镇居民 + 公共安全风险　； 参考：《中国安全科学学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：突发公共安全事件中的人员伤亡取决于危害因素与人群的时空分布的重合程度,建立健全的居民生活模式参数模型库可为地震等突发性公共安全风险防范和应急管理提供依据。报告了在中国较大范围开展的村镇居民生活模式参数问卷调查(HAPRRES)结果,包括生活模式参数、优化建模方法和仿真方法等。着重分析了种植业者群体的生活模式参数及其模型,发现区分不同的日工作安排(以日工作段数为参数)对活动参数分别建模,并且模型稳健性较好。利用模型库仿真再现得到人群分布,拟合出我国地震中毁坏建筑物内处于睡眠或清醒状态居民的不同死亡率,证实不同空间和活动状态的居民的伤亡概率有显著差异。
[Abstract]:The casualties in sudden public safety events depend on the degree of coincidence between the hazard factors and the temporal and spatial distribution of the population. The establishment of a sound model base of the residents' life pattern parameters can provide a basis for the prevention and emergency management of sudden public safety risks such as earthquakes. This paper reports the results of HAPRRES, including life model parameters, optimization modeling methods and simulation methods, which have been carried out in a large range of villages and towns in China. Based on the analysis of the life pattern parameters and their models of growers, it is found that different daily working arrangements (taking the number of working segments per day as parameters) are used to model the activity parameters respectively, and the model is robust. By using the model base to simulate and reproduce the population distribution, the different mortality rates of residents in sleep or awake state in damaged buildings in earthquake in China were fitted, and it was proved that there were significant differences in the casualty probability of residents in different space and active state.
【作者单位】： 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ24B04)
【分类号】：P315.9;D63
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本文编号：1919014