地震灾害间接经济损失评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 16:15

本文选题：地震灾害 + 间接经济损失　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前我国发生地震灾害之后,国家和各地区政府机构主要将精力和工作内容集中在人员伤亡统计和直接经济损失评估上,对间接经济损失评估的重要性认识不足。政府机构若能重视对震害间接经济损失评估及分析,将会有效地指导接下来的防灾救灾和恢复重建工作。当前国内对间接经济损失评估研究尚处于起步阶段,本文通过系统总结国内外关于地震灾害间接经济损失评估的研究成果,围绕地震灾害间接经济损失界定不清、当前评估模型可操作性不强等问题,深度分析传统投入产出模型并进行改进,以汶川大地震为算例进行了验证,最终得出一种有效的评估方法。论文主要研究内容包括:1、研究了当前地震灾害间接损失的内涵并重新界定了其范围。本文通过阅读大量中外关于间接经济损失的文献,针对当前其范围界定不清问题,提出了自己的界定方式:指出地震救灾投入费用不属于间接经济损失范畴,认为地震灾害带来灾区生产部门的总间接经济损失只包括停产减产损失和产业关联损失。2、改进了传统投入产出模型。本文从模型可操作性和数据可获得性方面,确定利用投入产出模型进行间接经济损失评估。传统模型中将直接经济损失看作是最终产品的损失,未考虑中间投入产品的损失,本文将直接经济损失的范畴界定在总产品损失层面上,并对不同类型的产业部门分别评估其停产减产损失和产业关联损失。3、通过汶川地震实例验证了改进投入产出模型的有效性和科学性。本文分别利用传统投入产出模型与改进投入产出模型评估汶川地震对四川省经济部门造成的间接经济损失。通过对比分析,验证了改进后模型的科学性和可操作性。最后得出结论认为改进的投入产出模型比传统模型更精确,相比于改进的消耗系数法,改进的分配系数法更合理科学。本文在重新界定间接经济损失范畴的基础上,对传统投入产出评估模型加以改进。模型改进后,不仅提高了评估结果的准确度,而且能分别求出各部门的停减产损失和产业关联损失,为我国地震灾害间接经济损失评估工作提供参考和建议。
[Abstract]:After the earthquake disaster happened in our country at present, the national and regional government agencies mainly concentrated their energy and work on the statistics of casualties and direct economic loss assessment, but they did not understand the importance of indirect economic loss assessment. If government agencies attach importance to the assessment and analysis of the indirect economic losses of the earthquake disaster, they will effectively guide the disaster prevention and relief and recovery and reconstruction work in the future. At present, the research on indirect economic loss assessment in China is still in its infancy. This paper systematically summarizes the research results of indirect economic loss assessment of earthquake disaster at home and abroad, and the definition of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster is unclear. The traditional input-output model is deeply analyzed and improved, which is verified by the Wenchuan earthquake as an example, and finally an effective evaluation method is obtained. The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1. The connotation of indirect loss of earthquake disaster is studied and its scope is redefined. By reading a large number of literatures on indirect economic losses at home and abroad and aiming at the unclear definition of its scope at present, this paper puts forward its own defining methods: it points out that the cost of earthquake disaster relief investment does not belong to the category of indirect economic losses. It is considered that the total indirect economic losses of the production departments in the disaster areas caused by the earthquake disasters only include the loss of production cut down and the loss of industrial association. 2. The traditional input-output model is improved. In this paper, the input-output model is used to evaluate the indirect economic loss in terms of model maneuverability and data availability. In the traditional model, the direct economic loss is regarded as the loss of the final product, and the loss of intermediate input product is not considered. In this paper, the category of direct economic loss is defined on the level of total product loss. The different types of industry departments are evaluated for the loss of production cut down and the loss of industrial association respectively. The effectiveness and scientific nature of the improved input-output model are verified by the Wenchuan earthquake. In this paper, the traditional input-output model and the improved input-output model are used to evaluate the indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake. Through comparative analysis, the improved model is verified to be scientific and operational. Finally, it is concluded that the improved input-output model is more accurate than the traditional model, and compared with the improved consumption coefficient method, the improved allocation coefficient method is more reasonable and scientific. On the basis of redefining the category of indirect economic loss, this paper improves the traditional input-output evaluation model. The improved model not only improves the accuracy of the evaluation results, but also can calculate the loss of cut down and industry correlation of various departments, and provides reference and suggestions for the assessment of indirect economic losses of earthquake disasters in China.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.9

【共引文献】