地震震级统计研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 05:04

本文选题：极值理论 + GEV模型　；参考：《南京师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：地震震级是地震研究中的基本概念。本文讨论地震震级的概率意义与统计分析问题。将地震震级作为随机变量处理,本文从概率论的角度给出了地震研究中常用概念的概率定义,包括地震危险性,平均复发周期,重现水平,平均发震次数等,并给出其统计计算方法。本文第二个主要工作是考察估计地震震级分布的统计方法。以极值理论为基础,本文改进了基于能量的模型。本文对1970年至2013年云南地区的地震震级数据进行了统计分析,分别用GEV模型,POT模型,基于能量的模型以及修正的能量模型对震级分布给出估计结果,并计算相应的平均复发周期和重现水平等基本概念。通过比较可以发现,改进后的方法可以在很大程度上提高和改善基于能量模型的效果,使之在数据存在缺失或者余震时,能够有更强的适应性。
[Abstract]:Magnitude is a basic concept in seismic research. The probabilistic significance and statistical analysis of magnitude are discussed in this paper. Taking the magnitude of earthquake as a random variable, this paper gives the probability definition of common concepts in seismic research from the point of view of probability theory, including seismic risk, average recurrence period, recurrence level, average earthquake occurrence times, etc. The statistical calculation method is also given. The second major work in this paper is to investigate the statistical methods for estimating magnitude distribution. Based on the extreme value theory, this paper improves the energy-based model. In this paper, the magnitude data of Yunnan from 1970 to 2013 are statistically analyzed. The magnitude distribution is estimated by using the GEV model and the POT model, based on the energy model and the modified energy model, respectively. The corresponding basic concepts such as mean recurrence period and recurrence level were calculated. It is found by comparison that the improved method can improve and improve the effect of the energy model to a great extent and make it more adaptable when the data is missing or aftershock.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.32

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