四川罗家青杠岭崩塌风险的定量评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 08:39

  本文选题：崩塌 + 概率分析　； 参考：《工程地质学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：我国多山,崩塌灾害频繁发生,相应的风险评价也得到了越来越多的关注。由于崩塌发生和运移过程的高度不确定性以及历史数据的不完备,往往很难进行相应的定量风险评价。四川罗家青杠岭的崩塌现场非常典型,而且现场资料较全、历史数据较多并且明确,是开展崩塌风险定量研究的很好实例。通过现场工程地质调查、测绘和统计分析,确定了历史崩塌的物源区、堆积区、最大运移距离、年发生概率以及坡体上的4块典型危岩体A-D。基于历史崩塌堆积区的块石统计特征以及物源区危岩体失稳启动位置的不确定性,利用二维Rockfall模拟软件对所在坡面的恢复系数及摩擦系数进行了反演。在此基础上,对危岩体A-D失稳后的运动特征进行了随机性数值模拟和统计分析,从而确定了崩塌的到达概率。基于崩塌发生概率、到达概率、承灾体时空分布概率和易损性的乘积,作者对罗家青杠岭崩塌进行了定量风险评价。评价结果表明,危岩体A和D的风险值处于不可接受的风险区间,块石B和C的风险值处于警告的风险区间,严重威胁着坡脚附近居民的生命财产安全,有必要采取相应的防灾减灾措施。
[Abstract]:With the frequent occurrence of mountain collapse disaster in China, the corresponding risk assessment has been paid more and more attention. Due to the high uncertainty in the process of collapse and migration and the incomplete historical data, it is often difficult to evaluate the corresponding quantitative risk. The collapse site of Luojiazingzhouling in Sichuan Province is very typical, and the site data is complete, the historical data is more and more clear, and it is a good example to carry out quantitative research on the risk of collapse. Through field engineering geological survey, mapping and statistical analysis, the source area, accumulation area, maximum migration distance, annual occurrence probability and A-D of four typical dangerous rock masses on slope are determined. Based on the statistical characteristics of rock blocks in the historical collapse and accumulation area and the uncertainty of the unstable starting position of the dangerous rock mass in the provenance area, the restoration coefficient and friction coefficient of the slope are inversed by using two-dimensional Rockfall simulation software. On this basis, the random numerical simulation and statistical analysis of the motion characteristics after A-D instability of dangerous rock mass are carried out, and the arrival probability of collapse is determined. Based on the product of probability of occurrence of collapse, probability of arrival, probability of space-time distribution of disaster bearing body and vulnerability, the author evaluated the quantitative risk of Luojia-qingzhouling collapse. The results show that the risk values of dangerous rock mass A and D are in the unacceptable risk range, and the risk values of block B and C are in the warning risk range, which seriously threaten the life and property safety of the residents near the foot of the slope. It is necessary to take corresponding measures for disaster prevention and mitigation.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所;中国科学院大学;北京中色资源环境工程股份有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41402285,40502027)资助
【分类号】：P642.21
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本文编号：1946042