地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系设计与方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 18:13

本文选题：地震应急综合演练 + 评估指标体系　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：地震应急综合演练是地震应急准备工作中的关键环节,其重要性越来越凸显。开展地震应急综合演练不仅有利于提高地震防御能力,而且是检验地震应急预案科学性的有效手段。近年来,地震应急综合演练在全国范围内开展的次数越来越多、影响越来越广,但也逐渐暴露出演练仿真性差、实效性不显著等问题。探讨如何解决上述问题,提高地震应急综合演练的质量和有效性,真正发挥其在检验预案、完善准备、锻炼队伍、磨合机制和科教宣传等方面的作用势在必行。本文结合地震应急综合演练的特性,充分发挥地震应急综合演练效果评估的导向性作用,期望通过实施“以评促建”来规范应急综合演练的体系化建设。因此,本文的重点在于设计一套科学化的地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系,同时,评估体系要具有简单易行、可操作性高等特征,适合地方政府使用。为此,在指标体系构建初步完成后,又与湖北省政府应急办相关专家进行探讨,对部分指标进行修订。最终希望提供一套契合我国国情、又切实可行的地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系。主要研究工作和结论如下:(1)系统分析了地震应急综合演练的理论和实践特性。一方面对应急演练和应急综合演练进行概念界定和特点分析。另一方面对地震应急综合演练的内涵、现状、影响因素和一般流程进行归纳总结。(2)基于“霍尔三维结构”的理论精髓构建了多主体的地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系。在对本领域其它理论体系总结、借鉴、学习的基础上,构建了以专业评估和参加者评估为主体的地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系,其中专业评估的一级指标3个,分别为演练前、演练中和演练后;二级指标在一级指标基础上确定了10个具有代表性的指标,三级指标是根据二级指标确定的细则,包含37个指标。在参加者评估中,一级指标3个,为演练前培训、演练中参与和演练后提高,二级指标9个,共同构成地震应急综合演练效果评估指标体系。(3)建立了地震应急综合演练效果评估模型。首先,运用层次分析法构建两两判断矩阵,计算各指标的权重;然后,建立了基于多级模糊综合评价的地震应急综合演练评估模型;最后,通过五级评估标准实证分析了十堰市十万人地震应急疏散救援综合演练效果,验证了模型的科学性和可操作性。(4)提出了在演练目标、情景设计、演练协同、群众参与、演练评估、预案完善6个方面提高十堰市地震应急综合演练效果的针对性建议。
[Abstract]:Seismic emergency comprehensive exercise is a key link in earthquake emergency preparedness, and its importance is becoming more and more prominent. It is not only helpful to improve the ability of earthquake defense, but also an effective means to test the scientific nature of earthquake emergency plan. In recent years, more and more comprehensive earthquake emergency drills have been carried out in the whole country, and the influence is more and more extensive. However, the problems such as poor simulation performance and low effectiveness have been gradually exposed. It is imperative to discuss how to solve the above problems, improve the quality and effectiveness of the comprehensive earthquake emergency drill, and give full play to its role in checking the plan, perfecting the preparation, training the team, running in the mechanism and propagating the science and education. Combined with the characteristics of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise, this paper gives full play to the guiding role of the evaluation of the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise, and expects to standardize the systematic construction of the emergency comprehensive exercise by implementing "evaluation and construction". Therefore, the emphasis of this paper is to design a scientific evaluation index system for the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise. At the same time, the evaluation system should have the characteristics of simplicity and high maneuverability, which is suitable for the use of local governments. Therefore, after the initial completion of the index system, the author discussed with the experts of Hubei Provincial Government Emergency response Office, and revised some of the indicators. Finally, we hope to provide a set of effective evaluation index system for earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise, which is suitable to our country's national conditions and feasible. The main research work and conclusions are as follows: 1) the theoretical and practical characteristics of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise are systematically analyzed. On the one hand, the concept and characteristics of emergency drills and emergency comprehensive exercises are defined and analyzed. On the other hand, the connotation, current situation, influencing factors and general process of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise are summarized. 2) based on the theory essence of "Hall three-dimensional structure", the multi-agent evaluation index system of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise effect is constructed. Based on the summary, reference and study of other theoretical systems in this field, an evaluation index system of the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise is constructed, in which professional evaluation and participant evaluation are the main body, among which there are three first-grade indexes for professional evaluation. Before the exercise, after the exercise and after the exercise, 10 representative indexes were determined on the basis of the first-level index, and the third-level index was determined according to the detailed rules of the second-level index, which included 37 indicators. In the participants' assessment, there were 3 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators, for pre-exercise training, participation and improvement after drills, The evaluation model of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise effect is established in this paper. First, using AHP to construct pairwise judgment matrix and calculate the weight of each index; then, the evaluation model of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise based on multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. This paper empirically analyzes the effect of comprehensive exercise of earthquake emergency evacuation and rescue of 100,000 people in Shiyan City by means of the five-level evaluation standard, and verifies the scientific and operable nature of the model. It puts forward the objectives of the exercise, scenario design, exercise cooperation, and mass participation. Six aspects of improving the effect of comprehensive earthquake emergency drills in Shiyan City are suggested.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.9

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