极端降雨条件下红壤土滑坡灾害风险评价与应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 02:35

本文选题：风险评价 + 极端降雨　；参考：《东华理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国国土面积辽阔,地形复杂多样,山区的面积要占全国土地总面积的69%以上,山区复杂的地形为众多自然灾害的发育提供了孕育环境,这些自然灾害大多与滑坡有关。随着城乡道路、桥梁、隧道等基础设施和各类建筑工程的兴建,对自然环境的扰动趋于强烈,条件更加复杂的潜在地质灾害体增多,加之近年来由于全球变暖,极端降雨事件频繁出现,尤其是极端降雨事件诱发的滑坡急剧增多,致使防灾减灾工作面临更加严峻的形势。基于此,在导师的指导下,以科技项目“极端降雨条件下红壤土坡灾变机理及风险评价”为支撑,依托课题组对九江市都昌县不稳定边坡的相关调研资料,旨在探索一套切实可行、服务于环鄱阳湖地区红壤土坡滑坡风险评价的理论与方法体系,为受地质灾害威胁的区域建立监测网络、制定应急措施并保障生命和财产安全提供工作基础,该研究具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。本文通过现场实测和调查,开展了如下工作:1在查阅大量科研资料、文献的基础上,全面系统地分析了国内外地质灾害风险评价的研究现状,并提出了该领域存在的问题及建议;2通过整理前人研究成果的基础上,对边坡的失稳机理以及影响边坡稳定性的危险源进行了分析总结;3依据地质灾害危险性评价的定义,总结出了针对环鄱阳湖地区滑坡灾害危险性评价的步骤。在对边坡工程危险源识别的分析基础之上,构建基于可拓学和模糊综合评判理论的滑坡灾害危险性评价模型。以都昌县调查区不稳定边坡为例,运用评价模型对其进行危险性评价;4我们通过增加防灾减灾这一因素,进一步完善了易损性的内涵。易损性评价步骤如下:按照承灾体破坏效应划分承灾体类型;调查统计各承灾体的分布情况和数量,对承灾体的价值进行核算;分析承灾体遭受不同种类的地质灾害时价值损失率和破坏强度;5基于承灾体类型分类,本文对承灾体价值损失率进行了分析讨论,提出了资源财产和物质财产两方面价值损失率的计算公式。同时,结合本文建立的环形风险评价模型,初步建立了滑坡灾害承灾体价值损失率与承灾体损毁等级对应关系。基于可拓学和模糊综合理论,建立易损性评价模型,并以都昌县西河小学为例,对其进行易损性评价;6由于红壤土滑坡灾害系统的复杂性、评价指标的模糊性以及风险的不确定性,首先,我们对滑坡灾害这一复杂系统进行了详细的阐述;然后,根据前章的评价研究,结合环鄱阳湖地区不稳定边坡的自身条件,构建了环形风险评价体系;最后,提出了风险矩阵法,并运用风险矩阵法对都昌县的八个调查区域进行了风险评价。
[Abstract]:Our country has a vast land area and diverse terrain. The mountainous area accounts for more than 69% of the total land area in China. The complex terrain in the mountainous area provides a breeding environment for the development of many natural disasters, most of which are related to landslides. With the construction of urban and rural roads, bridges, tunnels and various construction projects, the disturbance to the natural environment tends to be strong, the potential geological hazards with more complicated conditions increase, and in recent years due to global warming, The frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events, especially the sharp increase of landslides induced by extreme rainfall events, make the disaster prevention and mitigation work face a more severe situation. Based on this, under the guidance of teachers, and supported by the scientific and technological project "Red soil slope catastrophe mechanism and risk assessment under extreme rainfall", the research group based on the relevant investigation data of the unstable slope in Duchang County, Jiujiang City. The purpose of this paper is to explore a set of theory and method system for risk assessment of red soil slope landslide in Poyang Lake region, and to establish monitoring network for regions threatened by geological hazards. It is of great academic value and practical significance to establish emergency measures and provide the working basis for the safety of life and property. Based on the on-the-spot measurement and investigation, this paper has carried out the following work: 1. On the basis of consulting a large amount of scientific research data and literature, the present research situation of geological hazard risk assessment at home and abroad has been comprehensively and systematically analyzed. The problems and suggestions in this field are put forward. Based on the previous research results, the mechanism of slope instability and the hazard sources affecting slope stability are analyzed and summarized according to the definition of geological hazard risk assessment. The steps of landslide hazard assessment in Poyang Lake area are summarized. Based on the analysis of hazard source identification in slope engineering, a landslide hazard assessment model based on extension theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is established. Taking the unstable slope in the investigation area of Duchang County as an example, we use the evaluation model to evaluate the risk of the slope. By adding the factor of disaster prevention and mitigation, we further improve the connotation of vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation steps are as follows: according to the damage effect of disaster bearing body, the type of disaster bearing body is divided, the distribution and quantity of each disaster bearing body are investigated and counted, and the value of disaster bearing body is calculated. Based on the classification of disaster bearing body types, the value loss rate of disaster bearing body is analyzed and discussed in this paper. A formula for calculating the loss rate of value in two aspects of resource property and material property is put forward. At the same time, combined with the ring risk evaluation model, the relationship between the value loss rate of landslide disaster bearing body and the damage grade of disaster bearing body is established. Based on the extension theory and fuzzy comprehensive theory, the vulnerability evaluation model is established. Taking Xiehe Primary School in Duchang County as an example, the vulnerability evaluation is carried out because of the complexity of the red loam landslide disaster system. The fuzziness of evaluation index and the uncertainty of risk. Firstly, we expound the complex system of landslide disaster in detail; then, according to the evaluation research in the previous chapter, combined with the condition of unstable slope in Poyang Lake area, Finally, the risk matrix method is put forward, and the risk evaluation of eight investigation areas in Duchang County is carried out by using the risk matrix method.
【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.22

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