清交大断裂中部晋祠段地震台流体动态机理的研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 09:20

本文选题：清交大断裂岩溶井 + 巨升　；参考：《太原理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2009年7月前后，位于山西太原清交大断裂晋祠段的太原地震台站岩溶观测井水位出现了反年变动态，并在随后的三年中持续上升了14m之多，在上升期间太原基准地震台体应变、水管NS向、水平摆EW向、跨断层水准测量等多项前兆观测手段也出现了较显著的异常。为此，准备把握此次水位动态的形成原因，对判断未来震情的发展具有重要意义。观测井前兆异常的判断一直以来都是震情判断的难点，确定异常来源是是判断异常属性的关键。为此，搞清井水位回升机理则是此次研究的重点。本文尝试通过数值模型与svm理论共同分析来探讨此次水位动态机理。在前人研究的基础上，对井孔所处地域的自然地理条件和水文地质条件进行了归纳和整理，确定了井孔属于晋祠泉域，并分析研究了井孔附近区域整体的水位动态变化。之后又依据泉域的水文地质概念模型，进行了数值模拟计算，分析了井水位巨升前后期区域水位动态的变化特点。然后利用svm理论对可能引起水位回升影响因素做了分析和选取，最后判断水位上升的主导因素，并以此对水位上升的机理进行讨论。通过分析发现，井孔所处边山段裂区域的多口井（晋华酒楼，红沟，，平泉，刘家园）均表现出相似的水位动态，而其水位动态在2009年至2012年内是以上升趋势为主，太原井的地理位置与水位动态的时序关系正与这一趋势相当。数值模拟的结果显示2009年后期边上断裂附近上升趋势显著，也印证了这一事实。在利用支持向量机（svm）理论寻找影响因素时，发现降雨量的变化及其滞后特征与人工开采仍是这一时段水位动态的主导因素，但加速上升时段水位变化还有其他影响因素存在。
[Abstract]:Around July 2009, the water level of karst observation well at Taiyuan seismic station located in the Jinci section of Qingjiaoda fault in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, appeared anti-annual variation, and continued to rise by as much as 14 m in the following three years. During the rising period, the strain of Taiyuan benchmark seismic station was observed. Some precursory observations such as NS direction of water pipe, EW direction of horizontal pendulum and leveling measurement across faults also show obvious anomalies. Therefore, it is of great significance to determine the future development of the earthquake situation by grasping the causes of the water level dynamics. It is always difficult to judge the precursory anomaly of observation well, and the key to judge the abnormal attribute is to determine the source of the anomaly. Therefore, to understand the recovery mechanism of well water level is the focus of this study. This paper attempts to discuss the dynamic mechanism of water level by numerical model and svm theory. On the basis of previous studies, the natural geographical conditions and hydrogeological conditions of the well hole are summarized and arranged. It is determined that the well hole belongs to the Jinci spring region, and the dynamic change of the whole water level in the area near the well hole is analyzed and studied. Then, according to the hydrogeological conceptual model of spring region, the numerical simulation calculation is carried out, and the characteristics of regional water level dynamic change before and after the well water level rise are analyzed. Then svm theory is used to analyze and select the factors that may cause the rise of water level. Finally, the main factors of water level rise are judged, and the mechanism of water level rise is discussed. Through analysis, it is found that many wells (Jinhua Restaurant, Honggou, Pingquan, Liu Jiayuan) in the crack area of the Bian Mountain Section where the well hole is located show similar water level dynamics, and the water level dynamic is mainly upward trend during the period from 2009 to 2012. The temporal relationship between the location of Taiyuan well and the water level is similar to this trend. The numerical simulation results show a significant upward trend near the edge fault in late 2009, which also confirms this fact. When the support vector machine (SVM) theory is used to find the influencing factors, it is found that the variation of rainfall and its lag characteristics and artificial mining are still the dominant factors of the water level dynamics in this period, but there are other factors that affect the water level change in the accelerated rising period.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.723

【参考文献】