中国地质灾害伤亡事件的空间格局及影响因素

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:56

本文选题：地质灾害 + 人员伤亡事件　；参考：《地理学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：对中国2000-2012年造成人员伤亡的地质灾害事件进行分析,其空间分布格局受地形等自然环境要素的影响,南多北少,主要位于川西山区和云贵高原地区,东南丘陵地区,北方黄土丘陵,以及祁连山脉和天山山脉等地区,但局部地区的分布格局表明其还受到人为因素影响。构建基于二元Logistic回归的中国地质灾害伤亡事件发生概率模型(CELC),定量分析自然、人为因素的影响程度,结果表明GDP增长率是仅次于地形起伏度的第二大影响因素,GDP增长率每增加2.72%,地质灾害伤亡事件发生的概率变为原来的2.706倍。此外还有多年平均降水、植被覆盖度、岩性、土壤类型、断裂带、产业类型和人口密度等因素。将CELC模型应用于中国县域,计算各个县的地质灾害伤亡事件概率,发现尚未发生但概率较高的县有27个,或为贫困县、或为矿产工业县域,或为房产过度开发县,它们是未来中国需要重点防范地质灾害的县域。
[Abstract]:The geological disaster events that caused casualties in China from 2000 to 2012 are analyzed. The spatial distribution pattern is influenced by the natural environment elements such as topography, the south is more than the north and the north is less. It is mainly located in the western Sichuan mountain area and the Yungui Plateau region, and the southeast hilly area. The loess hilly areas in the north and the Qilian Mountains and Tianshan Mountains are also affected by human factors. The probability model of geological hazard casualty events in China based on binary Logistic regression was constructed to quantitatively analyze the influence of natural and human factors. The results show that with the increase of 2.72% of the growth rate of GDP, the probability of casualties of geological disasters is 2.706 times that of the original. In addition, there are many factors such as annual average precipitation, vegetation coverage, lithology, soil type, fault zone, industry type and population density. The CELC model is applied to the county area of China to calculate the probability of geological disaster casualty event in each county. It is found that 27 counties with high probability have not happened, either poor county, mineral industry county, or overdeveloped real estate county. They are the counties that China needs to focus on preventing geological disasters in the future.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271544) 国家重点研发计划专项项目课题(2016YFA0602403) “十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK10B03)~~
【分类号】：P694

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