地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨模型与方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 16:18

本文选题：地震灾害 + 应急救援　；参考：《华中科技大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：地震灾害是最为严重的自然灾害之一,一旦发生地震,常常给人民的生命财产安全带来巨大的损失。当地震发生后,地震灾害应急救援工作会立即启动,以防止地震灾害的进一步扩大,减轻受灾地区的损失。地震灾害应急物资是地震灾害应急救援工作的重要保障,很大程度地影响着应急救援工作的质量和效率。因此,面对频发的地震灾害,建立科学、有效的应急物资管理决策模型,对于提高地震灾害应急救援的能力,减轻地震灾害引起的生命财产损失具有重大意义。近年来,国内外学者已经提出了一系列应急物资需求预测及调拨的决策模型,并依据地震灾害的特点不断地对现有决策模型的原理与算法进行改进,使其更加适应地震灾害发生后的特殊环境。目前,地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨的模型、方法和理论体系都已比较成熟,但从实际的应用结果来看,仍然存在一些问题。比如,应急物资需求预测与调拨中各部分内容相互作用、联系紧密,共同组成一个庞大的有机系统,虽然现有的应急物资需求预测与调拨模型研究较为广泛,但都仅仅关注其中的某个或某几个方面,研究内容较为零散,较少对应急物资需求预测及调拨进行系统、整体的研究。其次,地震灾害通常影响较大,受灾区域在空间上分布广泛并且下垫面受灾程度在空间上分布具有不均匀性。现有的地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨的模型与方法中较少考虑受灾程度在空间分布上的不均匀性,致使所建立的模型无法反映灾区的实际受灾情况,产生不合理的计算结果。再次,地震灾害中广泛存在着不确定性,包含信息的不完备性、随机性和模糊性等,如何针对这些不确定性建立合理的模型仍然有待进一步的研究。本文针对现有地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨研究中对系统性、空间非均匀性和不确定性考虑不足的问题,采取系统工程的方法对地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨中各个环节与组成部分进行综合分析、系统建模,在准确掌握地震灾害相关基础知识、空间信息技术、不确定性理论和应急物资管理决策方法的基础上,力求以把握应急物资需求预测及调拨全过程的系统性为前提,充分反映灾区的空间非均匀性和不确定性,提出科学、有效的地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨模型与方法。应用结果表明,本文所提出的方法能够提高现有地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨模型的决策效果,并对系统工程方法、空间信息技术和不确定性理论在地震灾害领域的专题型应用研究进行了补充,具有良好的理论创新和集成创新价值。本文的主要研究内容及取得的研究成果如下：(1)基于空间案例推理的地震灾害应急物资需求预测模型与方法：针对震后灾区信息不完备的特点,提出采用案例推理方法来预测应急物资需求情况,同时考虑到地震灾害对下垫面造成的受灾程度在空间分布上具有不均匀性的特点,向传统的案例推理方法中引入空间信息,并重新设计适用于处理空间信息的案例表达和案例检索方法,实现空间信息技术与案例推理的无缝集成,解决了目前地震灾害应急物资需求预测中对地震灾区的信息不确定性、受灾程度的空间非均匀性考虑不够的问题,为应急物资需求预测以及应急物资调拨模型的构建提供有力支撑。(2)考虑道路随机受损的地震灾害应急物资分发中心选址模型与方法：针对地震后道路受损随地震受灾程度呈现空间非均匀性以及道路受损随机性的特点,利用空间信息技术在地震灾区受灾程度空间表达、基础地理信息处理和灾区路网数据分析管理等方面的优势,以预计地震烈度图为依据,结合历史统计数据,建立地震烈度和道路受损程度之间的关系,提出了基于改进P-median模型的考虑道路随机受损的地震灾害应急物资分发中心选址模型,解决了以传统P-median模型为代表的分发中心选址确定性模型对道路不同程度受损和随机受损考虑不足的问题,为应急物资分发中心选址提供更加客观、全面和完备的选址方案。(3)基于模糊目标规划的地震灾害应急物资分配调度模型与方法：针对地震灾害应急物资分配调度的多目标特性以及多个决策目标重要程度之间存在模糊性的特点,充分利用空间信息技术的优势,使用灾区各类空间数据,构建应急物资分配调度的重点性、高效性和公平性目标函数。同时运用模糊集理论和目标规划方法,设计模糊目标规划方法处理多个目标之间的模糊性,提出了基于模糊目标规划的地震灾害应急物资分配调度模型,解决了由于目标之间的模糊性导致模型无法准确建立的不足,为应急物资分配方案和车辆运行路线的规划提供了全新的解决思路,能够真实、充分和准确地反映了灾区应急物资的分配调度实际情况。系统工程方法、空间信息技术、不确定性理论与地震灾害应急物资管理决策模型相结合,作为上述理论、方法和技术在地震灾害应急中的专题应用和扩展研究,体现了多学科综合交叉应用,为地震灾害应急物资需求预测及调拨模型的构建提供了全新的改进思路,使模型的建立思想和计算结果在地震灾害应急物资管理决策中更具有参考价值。
[Abstract]:Earthquake disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters. Once an earthquake occurs, it often brings great loss to the people's life and property safety. When the earthquake occurs, the emergency rescue work of the earthquake disaster will start immediately to prevent the further expansion of the earthquake disaster and reduce the loss in the affected area. The emergency material for earthquake disaster is an earthquake disaster. The important guarantee of emergency rescue work greatly affects the quality and efficiency of emergency rescue work. Therefore, in the face of frequent earthquake disasters, the establishment of a scientific and effective emergency material management decision model is of great significance for improving the ability of earthquake disaster emergency rescue and reducing the loss of life and property caused by earthquake disasters. At home and abroad, domestic and foreign scholars have put forward a series of decision-making models for the prediction and allocation of emergency material demand. According to the characteristics of earthquake disasters, the principles and algorithms of the existing decision-making models are constantly improved to make it more suitable for the special environment after the occurrence of earthquake disasters. The method and theory system are mature, but there are still some problems from the practical application results. For example, the prediction of emergency material demand is interacted with each part of the allocation and is closely connected to form a large organic system, although the existing emergency materials demand forecasting and allocation model are widely studied. However, only one or some aspects of the research are concerned, the research content is relatively scattered, the system and the overall study of the emergency material demand forecasting and allocation are less. Secondly, the earthquake disaster usually has great influence, the disaster area is widely distributed in space and the distribution of the disaster level of the underlying surface is uneven in space. The model and method of emergency material demand prediction and allocation of earthquake disaster seldom consider the inhomogeneity of the magnitude of the disaster in the spatial distribution, so that the model can not reflect the actual disaster situation in the disaster area and produce the unreasonable calculation results. Again, the earthquake disaster is widely stored in the uncertainty, including the incompleteness of the information, and the incompleteness of the information. How to set up a reasonable model for these uncertainties remains to be further studied. In this paper, the system engineering method is adopted to solve the problems of systematic, spatial inhomogeneity and uncertainty in the research on the demand forecasting and allocation of emergency materials for earthquake disaster. On the basis of accurate grasp of the basic knowledge of earthquake disaster related, spatial information technology, uncertainty theory and emergency material management decision method, the requirement prediction and allocation of all links and components are analyzed comprehensively. On the basis of the method of decision-making of the uncertainty theory and emergency material management, the premise is to grasp the prediction of emergency materials demand and the systematicness of the whole process of allocation. Reflecting the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty of the disaster area, the scientific and effective prediction of emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the model and method are put forward. The application results show that the method proposed in this paper can improve the prediction of the emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the decision effect of the allocation model, and the spatial information of the system engineering method. Technology and uncertainty theory are supplemented by thematic application research in the field of earthquake disaster. It has good theoretical innovation and integration innovation value. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the prediction model and method of earthquake disaster emergency material demand based on spatial case-based reasoning: Aiming at the disaster area after the earthquake With the characteristics of incomplete information, a case based reasoning method is proposed to predict the demand for emergency materials. At the same time, taking into account the uneven distribution of the earthquake disaster caused by the earthquake disaster to the underlying surface, the spatial information is introduced into the traditional case reasoning method, and the case is redesigned to deal with the space information. The method of expression and case retrieval is used to realize the seamless integration of space information technology and case-based reasoning. It solves the problem of information uncertainty in earthquake disaster emergency material demand prediction and the lack of space inhomogeneity in the disaster degree, and the construction of emergency material demand prediction and emergency material allocation model. For strong support. (2) the location model and method of emergency material distribution center of earthquake disaster, considering the random damage of road, in view of the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity and randomness of road damage, the spatial information technology is used to express the disaster degree space in the earthquake stricken area and the basic geographic information. The relationship between seismic intensity and road damage degree is established on the basis of seismic intensity map, and the relationship between seismic intensity and road damage degree is established on the basis of seismic intensity map. The location model of emergency material distribution center based on improved P-median model is proposed, which is based on the improved seismic intensity map. The traditional P-median model, represented by the deterministic model of distribution center location, provides a more objective, comprehensive and complete location scheme for the location of emergency material distribution centers. (3) the model and method for the distribution and scheduling of emergency materials for earthquake disaster based on fuzzy target programming. The multi-objective characteristics of the distribution and scheduling of emergency materials for earthquake disaster and the fuzziness between the importance of multiple decision targets and the advantage of space information technology are made full use of the space data in the disaster areas to construct the focus, efficiency and fairness objective function of the emergency materials distribution and dispatch. The fuzzy goal programming method is designed to deal with the fuzziness between multiple targets. A model for distribution and scheduling of earthquake disaster emergency materials based on fuzzy goal programming is proposed, which solves the problem that the model can not be established precisely because of the fuzziness between the targets, and it is the emergency material distribution scheme and the vehicle running route. The plan provides a new solution, which can truly, fully and accurately reflect the actual situation of distribution and scheduling of emergency materials in disaster areas. System engineering method, space information technology, uncertainty theory and earthquake disaster emergency material management decision-making model, as the previous theory, method and technology in the earthquake disaster emergency response. The application and expansion of the questions reflect the multidisciplinary and cross application, which provides a new way of thinking for the prediction of emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the construction of the allocation model, and makes the thought and calculation results of the model more valuable in the decision-making of earthquake disaster emergency material management.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P315.9

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