新疆地区地质灾害危险因子评估与评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 13:57

本文选题：新疆 + 地质灾害　；参考：《辽宁工程技术大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：地质灾害是一种极具破坏性的灾害事件,全世界几乎每个国家都会受到其不同程度的危害。我国更是地质灾害严重的国家之一,严重的制约了我国经济社会的可持续发展。新疆位于我国西北边陲,高差悬殊的地势、破碎的岩体、复杂的地质构造、分布不均匀的降雨等条件造成了滑坡、泥石流及崩塌灾害频发,这给当地政府的防灾减灾工作带来了严峻的挑战。因此,科学、有效的掌握新疆地质灾害空间分布规律,建立地质灾害危险性评估模型有着重要的理论与实践意义。因此本文以新疆为研究区域,以GIS技术为支撑,在充分调查和阅读相关文献的基础上,对新疆地质灾害的一些特征进行了定量分析研究,并根据实际情况选取了评估指标因子,进行了新疆地质灾害危险性的评估。取得了以下主要成果：(1)定量分析和揭示了新疆地质灾害的特征①本文基于ArcGIS平台,利用标准差椭圆对滑坡、泥石流和崩塌三种地质灾害进行了方向分布的分析,发现其空间分布上既有聚集性又有分散性。并通过Ripley K函数进行了定量化验证。②统计了不同规模的地质灾害的所占比例,并基于核密度分析的原理量化了规模不一的地质灾害在空间上的分布特点。(2)结合新疆实际情况,从孕灾和致灾因子两个方面考虑,选取具有典型代表的指标因子作为新疆区域滑坡、泥石流和崩塌地质灾害的危险性评估因子。并通过统计分析方法,对指标因子的敏感性进行了评估,从而系统的分析了地质灾害事件与各指标因子的关系。(3)系统的阐述了目前地质灾害评估的常用方法。通过比较,发现Logistical方法适合大区域的预测分析。最后以滑坡为例,对新疆滑坡地质灾害的敏感性进行了评估与模型验证。根据评估结果,将新疆划分为四个区：不易发区、低易发区、中易发区和高易发区。(4)根据获取的新疆气象站数据,利用插值方法得到新疆降雨分布的模拟数据,并在敏感性评估成果的基础上,叠加降雨因子,采用乘积法对滑坡灾害的危险性进行了评估,并将滑坡灾害危险性的空间分布划分为四个区域：低危险、中度危险、较高危险和高危险区。
[Abstract]:Geological hazard is a kind of extremely destructive disaster event, almost every country in the world will be harmed by it in different degrees. China is one of the countries with serious geological disasters, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of our economy and society. Xinjiang is located in the northwestern border of China. The great difference in height, the broken rock mass, the complex geological structure, the uneven rainfall and other conditions have caused frequent landslides, debris flows and collapses. This brings severe challenges to the local government's disaster prevention and mitigation work. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to grasp the spatial distribution of geological hazards in Xinjiang scientifically and effectively, and to establish a hazard assessment model for geological hazards. Therefore, based on the research area of Xinjiang and the support of GIS technology, based on the full investigation and reading of relevant documents, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of some characteristics of geological hazards in Xinjiang, and selects the evaluation index factors according to the actual situation. The risk assessment of geological hazards in Xinjiang is carried out. The main achievements are as follows: (1) the characteristics of geological hazards in Xinjiang are quantitatively analyzed and revealed. 1 based on ArcGIS platform, the directional distribution of landslide, debris flow and collapse is analyzed by using standard deviation ellipse. It is found that its spatial distribution has both aggregation and dispersion. Through the Ripley K function, the paper quantitatively verifies that .2 counts the proportion of geological hazards of different scales, and quantifies the spatial distribution characteristics of geological hazards of different scales based on the principle of nuclear density analysis. (2) combined with the actual situation in Xinjiang, This paper selects the representative index factors as the risk assessment factors of regional landslide, debris flow and collapse in Xinjiang from the two aspects of disaster preparedness and disaster causing factors. The sensitivity of the index factors is evaluated by the statistical analysis method, and the relationship between the geological hazard events and the index factors is analyzed systematically. (3) the common methods of geological hazard assessment are expounded systematically. Through comparison, it is found that the logical method is suitable for large area prediction and analysis. Finally, taking landslide as an example, the sensitivity of landslide geological hazard in Xinjiang is evaluated and the model is verified. According to the evaluation results, Xinjiang is divided into four regions: non-susceptible area, low-prone area, medium-prone area and high-prone area. (4) according to the obtained data of Xinjiang meteorological station, the simulated data of rainfall distribution in Xinjiang are obtained by interpolation method. On the basis of the results of sensitivity assessment, the risk of landslide hazard is evaluated by multiplying the rainfall factor, and the spatial distribution of landslide hazard is divided into four regions: low risk and moderate hazard. Higher risk and high risk areas.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P694

【参考文献】