地震救援中基于信息实时更新的两阶段应急物资调配模型
发布时间：2018-07-28 17:09
【摘要】：应急物资调配是应急管理中一个重要的课题,准确、高效的应急物资调配方案是决定应急救援的成功的关键,然而应急情况下信息的不确定性增加了物资调配问题的难度。本文以应急物资调配的不确定性处理作为重点,研究地震发生后的应急物资调配方案。本文将应急救援过程按灾情信息获知程度分为黑箱期(仅知道震级、震中的时期)与灰箱期(各地震害指数依次更新的时期)。黑箱期根据历史地震灾情数据得到相应的离散情景集,并基于此使用鲁棒规划建模。在灰箱期阶段,本文根据震害指数更新烈度圈及各受灾点的物资需求,计算未满足率,从而决定是否进行新一次的配送,使用数学规划求解配送方案。最后,本文以鲁甸地震的实际数据为例进行分析验证了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:Emergency material allocation is an important subject in emergency management. Accurate and efficient emergency material allocation scheme is the key to the success of emergency rescue. However, the uncertainty of information in emergency situation increases the difficulty of material allocation. This paper focuses on the uncertainty treatment of emergency material allocation, and studies the emergency material allocation scheme after earthquake. In this paper, the emergency rescue process is divided into black box period (only known magnitude, epicenter period) and grey box period (the period of local earthquake damage index updating in turn) according to the degree of information of the disaster. According to the historical earthquake disaster data, the black box period is used to obtain the corresponding discrete scenario set, and based on this, robust planning is used to model the model. In the period of grey box, the unsatisfied rate is calculated according to the renewal of the intensity circle and the material demand of each disaster point according to the earthquake damage index, so as to decide whether to carry out a new distribution or not, and to use mathematical programming to solve the distribution scheme. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by taking the actual data of Ludian earthquake as an example.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院大学工程科学学院;首都师范大学数学科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91324012;91024031)
【分类号】：P315.9
本文编号：2150981
[Abstract]:Emergency material allocation is an important subject in emergency management. Accurate and efficient emergency material allocation scheme is the key to the success of emergency rescue. However, the uncertainty of information in emergency situation increases the difficulty of material allocation. This paper focuses on the uncertainty treatment of emergency material allocation, and studies the emergency material allocation scheme after earthquake. In this paper, the emergency rescue process is divided into black box period (only known magnitude, epicenter period) and grey box period (the period of local earthquake damage index updating in turn) according to the degree of information of the disaster. According to the historical earthquake disaster data, the black box period is used to obtain the corresponding discrete scenario set, and based on this, robust planning is used to model the model. In the period of grey box, the unsatisfied rate is calculated according to the renewal of the intensity circle and the material demand of each disaster point according to the earthquake damage index, so as to decide whether to carry out a new distribution or not, and to use mathematical programming to solve the distribution scheme. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by taking the actual data of Ludian earthquake as an example.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院大学工程科学学院;首都师范大学数学科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91324012;91024031)
【分类号】：P315.9
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1 姬世芳;基于空间信息服务的震后救灾物资调配系统的设计与实现[D];电子科技大学;2013年
，本文编号：2150981
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