南通市海域生态承载力的研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 12:07

【摘要】：江苏省南通市位于国家“一带一路”战略和“长江经济带”战略的重叠区域。多年来对海洋资源的开发强度持续增加,而重开发轻保护、无度无序开发的现象使得南通市海域环境开始出现问题,因此,为了未雨绸缪,急需对南通市所辖海域的生态承载力进行客观评价与分析,以便寻找恰当的决策依据,确保其海域生态环境的可持续利用。论文对海域生态承载力研究的概念和方法进行概述,借鉴国内外相关文献,构建了南通市海域生态承载力评价指标体系。在确定评价指标体系的指标的过程中,采用了文献分析法和德尔菲法,应用德尔菲法由初始的39个指标中选定了其中的24个指标,又通过SPSS统计软件的多重共线性分析剔除了2个相似指标,最终明确了本研究的3个准则层8个指标层的共计22个指标。明确指标体系所有指标之后,对指标的权重进行赋值采用的方法是层次分析法跟熵值法结合的组合赋权法,最后通过状态空间模型将南通市海域生态承载力进行量化,得出南通市海域2009-2014年海域生态承载力指数并对其进行系统的分析。研究结果表明:(1)在2009-2014年南通市海域生态承载力指数呈现波浪式下降的趋势,指数从2009的0.8275下降到2014年的0.7304,承载度由良好可载降到基本可载,从2010年后承载度一直处于一个下降的趋势。(2)根据系统的分析本文认为造成承载力指数处于震荡式下降的原因可能是南通市人口的激增,渔业资源的过度捕捞等造成海洋环境压力增加,环境被破坏,同时环境保护的投入还远跟不上。(3)本文根据南通市海域生态承载力评价结果提出了相对应的对策建议包括最根本的是从根本上严格控制南通市人口增长,减小人口自然增长率,从根本上控制南通企业的污染排放,加强对废水、废气和固体废弃物排放的调控。对造成海洋污染的企业严惩不贷,加大处罚力度,完善相关的法律法规,大力发展循环经济,持续加大海洋环境保护的投入,对入海污染物排放实行总量控制,建立完善的海洋环境监测系统。
[Abstract]:Nantong City of Jiangsu Province is located in the overlapping area of the National Strategy of Belt and Road and the Strategy of Yangtze Economic Belt. Over the years, the intensity of exploitation of marine resources has continued to increase, while the phenomenon of emphasizing exploitation and light protection, and indiscriminate and disorderly development, has caused problems in the marine environment of Nantong City. Therefore, in order to make good preparations in advance, It is urgent to evaluate and analyze the ecological carrying capacity of the sea area under the jurisdiction of Nantong City in order to find the appropriate decision basis and ensure the sustainable utilization of the ecological environment in the sea area. In this paper, the concept and method of ecological carrying capacity of sea area are summarized, and the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of sea area in Nantong City is constructed by referring to relevant literature at home and abroad. In the process of determining the indicators of the evaluation index system, the literature analysis method and Delphi method are used, and 24 of them are selected from the 39 initial indicators by using Delphi method. Two similar indexes are eliminated by the multiplex collinear analysis of SPSS statistical software. Finally, 22 indexes of the 3 criteria and 8 index layers in this study are determined. After defining all the indexes in the index system, the method to assign the weight of the index is the combination weighting method of AHP and entropy method. Finally, the ecological carrying capacity of Nantong sea area is quantified by the state space model. The ecological carrying capacity index of Nantong sea area from 2009 to 2014 is obtained and analyzed systematically. The results show that: (1) the ecological carrying capacity index of Nantong City in 2009-2014 shows a wave-like downward trend, from 0.8275 in 2009 to 0.7304 in 2014, and the carrying capacity decreases from good loadability to basic loadability. Since 2010, the bearing capacity has been in a downward trend. (2) according to the systematic analysis, this paper thinks that the reason that the bearing capacity index is in oscillatory decline may be the population surge in Nantong City. The overfishing of fishery resources has increased the pressure on the marine environment and destroyed the environment. At the same time, the input of environmental protection is far from keeping up. (3) according to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity in Nantong City, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in this paper, including the most fundamental one is to strictly control the population growth in Nantong City and reduce the natural population growth rate. To control the pollution discharge of Nantong enterprise and strengthen the control of waste water, waste gas and solid waste. To severely punish enterprises that cause marine pollution, to increase penalties, to improve relevant laws and regulations, to vigorously develop circular economy, to continuously increase investment in marine environmental protection, and to implement a total amount control of pollutants discharged into the sea. Establish a perfect marine environment monitoring system.
【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X145

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