大型泥石流堵河特征及预测模型研究
发布时间：2018-08-09 14:32
【摘要】：汶川地震后,由于地震诱发的山体崩塌、滑坡数量急剧增加,四川范围内触发了更多、更具威胁的大型泥石流灾害,造成了极其严重的社会经济损失。而由大型泥石流暴发后导致的堵河现象屡见不鲜,于山体滑坡形成的堵河事件不同的是泥石流形成的堵河事件具有突然爆发性的特点,相对具有更强的威胁。泥石流堵塞甚至堵断主河所形成的的二次灾害比泥石流本身所造成的危害跟要严重的多。比如震区2010年8月13日暴发的红椿沟泥石流,2011年7月3日暴发的高家沟泥流,2013年7月10日暴发的草坡磨子沟泥石流等都对沿线公路及民居造成了重大损失。因此对开展研究区范围内大型堵河泥石流的研究预测分析迫在眉睫。由于泥石流堵河机制的复杂性,导致前人对泥石流堵河的认识及理解还不够系统完善;震后研究区内暴发的多次大型泥石流,为本文加深研究该类型泥石流提供了丰富的天然样本。论文在收集阅读大量前人研究成果、野外的详细调查及大量室内复杂运算后,得出以下分析和探索:首先,通过对研究区野外的详细调查及所收集的到相关资料的分析,对选取的23条大型堵河泥石流在空间及时间的分布进行讨论;并且基于泥石流进入河道后形态情况,将泥石流堵河类型进行分类探讨,并总结泥石流的堵河基本特征。其次,通过详细分析所选取的3条典型泥石流沟发生的堵河事件,结合前人研究结果,归纳了泥石流堵塞河流的主要影响因素;从泥石流本身角度出发,再通过统计分析研究区23条大型泥石流形成堵河现象的共同点,得出这些大型泥石流形成堵河的基本模式。再次,通过研究讨论前人对泥石流冲出量的预测模型,并结合研究区实际情况,采用相关性分析确定相对高差、物源总量及流域面积作为泥石流冲出量的预测因子,并拟合泥石流冲出量的预测模型;另外,通过对基于冲出角和扇顶角的泥石流冲出距离模型和基于物源量的泥石流冲出距离预测模型的统计计算,分析其在研究区的适用性,并采用FLO-2D的数值模拟方法,对研究区高家沟及草坡磨子沟进行模拟对比分析,进一步研究大型堵河泥石流的冲出规模情况。最后,论文从泥石流本身的固有的特性和主河特性两方面入手,选择泥石流流量、容重及沟道纵比降,以及与泥石流相对应的河水流量、容重及河床纵比降作为堵河评价因子;基于所选评价因子,并利用matlab软件采用非线性回归的数学方法对研究区大型堵河泥石流进行统计分析,建立了大型泥石流堵河预测模型,来更好地有针对性的对大型堵河泥石流可能性及堵河程度进行预测,能够为今后的泥石流后效应灾害的预测及损失评估提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:After the Wenchuan earthquake, because of the earthquake induced landslides, the number of landslides increased sharply, Sichuan triggered more and more threatening large-scale debris flow disasters, resulting in extremely serious social and economic losses. However, the phenomenon of river shutoff caused by the large debris flow is common. The event of blocking the river formed by the landslide is different from that of the debris flow, which has the characteristics of sudden eruption, and has a stronger threat. The secondary disaster caused by blocking or even blocking the main river is much more serious than that caused by the debris flow itself. For example, the debris flow in Hongchun gully on August 13, 2010, the mud flow in Gaojiagou on July 3, 2011, and the debris flow in Mozigou in Caopo on July 10, 2013 have caused great losses to the roads and houses along the route. Therefore, it is urgent to study and forecast the large-scale debris flow in the study area. Because of the complexity of the mechanism of debris flow shutoff, the understanding and understanding of debris flow and river shutoff are not systematic enough. This paper provides abundant natural samples for further study of this type of debris flow. After collecting and reading a large number of previous research results, detailed field investigations and a large number of indoor complex operations, the paper draws the following analysis and exploration: first, through the detailed investigation of the field of the research area and the analysis of the relevant data collected, The spatial and temporal distribution of 23 large river shutoff debris flows were discussed, and the types of debris flow shutoff were classified and discussed based on the shape of debris flow after entering the river channel, and the basic characteristics of debris flow shutoff were summarized. Secondly, through the detailed analysis of three typical debris flow gullies in the selection of river shutoff events, combined with previous research results, summed up the main influencing factors of debris flow blocking rivers; from the point of view of debris flow itself, Based on the statistical analysis of 23 large debris flows in the study area, the basic model of the formation of these large debris flows is obtained. Thirdly, through studying and discussing the prediction model of debris flow volume, and combining the actual situation of the study area, using the correlation analysis to determine the relative height difference, the total amount of the source and the basin area as the prediction factors of the debris flow volume. In addition, through statistical calculation of debris flow flushing distance model based on flushing angle and fan top angle and debris flow flushing distance prediction model based on source quantity, the applicability of debris flow flushing distance prediction model in the study area is analyzed. The numerical simulation method of FLO-2D is used to simulate and contrast the Gaojiagou and Mozi gully in the study area to further study the scale of the large mud-rock flow plugging the river. Finally, starting with the inherent characteristics of debris flow and the characteristics of the main river, the paper selects the debris flow, bulk density and channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the corresponding river flow, bulk density and river bed longitudinal ratio drop as evaluation factors for river shutoff. Based on the selected evaluation factors and using matlab software to use nonlinear regression mathematical method to analyze the large debris flow in the study area, a prediction model of large debris flow is established. In order to predict the possibility and extent of large debris flow plugging, it can provide a reference for the prediction and loss assessment of post-debris flow effects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.23
本文编号：2174382
[Abstract]:After the Wenchuan earthquake, because of the earthquake induced landslides, the number of landslides increased sharply, Sichuan triggered more and more threatening large-scale debris flow disasters, resulting in extremely serious social and economic losses. However, the phenomenon of river shutoff caused by the large debris flow is common. The event of blocking the river formed by the landslide is different from that of the debris flow, which has the characteristics of sudden eruption, and has a stronger threat. The secondary disaster caused by blocking or even blocking the main river is much more serious than that caused by the debris flow itself. For example, the debris flow in Hongchun gully on August 13, 2010, the mud flow in Gaojiagou on July 3, 2011, and the debris flow in Mozigou in Caopo on July 10, 2013 have caused great losses to the roads and houses along the route. Therefore, it is urgent to study and forecast the large-scale debris flow in the study area. Because of the complexity of the mechanism of debris flow shutoff, the understanding and understanding of debris flow and river shutoff are not systematic enough. This paper provides abundant natural samples for further study of this type of debris flow. After collecting and reading a large number of previous research results, detailed field investigations and a large number of indoor complex operations, the paper draws the following analysis and exploration: first, through the detailed investigation of the field of the research area and the analysis of the relevant data collected, The spatial and temporal distribution of 23 large river shutoff debris flows were discussed, and the types of debris flow shutoff were classified and discussed based on the shape of debris flow after entering the river channel, and the basic characteristics of debris flow shutoff were summarized. Secondly, through the detailed analysis of three typical debris flow gullies in the selection of river shutoff events, combined with previous research results, summed up the main influencing factors of debris flow blocking rivers; from the point of view of debris flow itself, Based on the statistical analysis of 23 large debris flows in the study area, the basic model of the formation of these large debris flows is obtained. Thirdly, through studying and discussing the prediction model of debris flow volume, and combining the actual situation of the study area, using the correlation analysis to determine the relative height difference, the total amount of the source and the basin area as the prediction factors of the debris flow volume. In addition, through statistical calculation of debris flow flushing distance model based on flushing angle and fan top angle and debris flow flushing distance prediction model based on source quantity, the applicability of debris flow flushing distance prediction model in the study area is analyzed. The numerical simulation method of FLO-2D is used to simulate and contrast the Gaojiagou and Mozi gully in the study area to further study the scale of the large mud-rock flow plugging the river. Finally, starting with the inherent characteristics of debris flow and the characteristics of the main river, the paper selects the debris flow, bulk density and channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the corresponding river flow, bulk density and river bed longitudinal ratio drop as evaluation factors for river shutoff. Based on the selected evaluation factors and using matlab software to use nonlinear regression mathematical method to analyze the large debris flow in the study area, a prediction model of large debris flow is established. In order to predict the possibility and extent of large debris flow plugging, it can provide a reference for the prediction and loss assessment of post-debris flow effects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.23
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 唐川;黄润秋;黄达;张伟峰;;金沙江美姑河牛牛坝水电站库区泥石流对工程影响分析[J];工程地质学报;2006年02期
2 郭志学,曹叔尤,刘兴年,方铎;泥石流堵江影响因素试验研究[J];水利学报;2004年11期
，本文编号：2174382
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