石家庄市平原区地下水位变化特征分析及预测研究

发布时间：2018-09-12 19:34

【摘要】：长期以来,随着我国经济的快速发展,水资源愈发短缺,华北地区尤为严重。为满足地区社会发展需求,华北地区持续多年超采地下水,已经造成严重的环境问题,地下水超采治理迫在眉睫。石家庄市平原区是华北平原较典型的地下水资源超采地区,由于地下水长期超采,补排失去平衡,石家庄市平原区地下水位急速下降,在区域内形成了若干地下水降落漏斗,而且在近几十年中地下水降落漏斗的规模逐渐变大,并引起了地裂缝、塌陷等地质环境问题。针对石家庄市地下水位不断下降,地下水降落漏斗范围不断增大的情况,石家庄市已经开展地下水超采综合治理,治理方式主要有两种手段,一是加强南水北调配套工程建设,充分利用南水北调分配的长江水替换受水区开采的地下水,二是实施地下水压采,通过加强节水工程建设,结构节水、工程节水、农艺节水相结合,提高工农业用水的利用效率和效益,节约地下水资源,减少地下水开采。本文通过收集石家庄市平原区1980-2015年地下水观测水位、地下水开采量、降雨量、国民生产总值等历史数据,对石家庄市平原区地下水位历史变化特征及降雨量、地下水开采量、国民生产总值等主要影响因素与地下水位变化的关系进行了分析。通过采用多元线性回归分析法、遗传BP神经网络算法分别构建了石家庄市平原区地下水埋深预测模型并对石家庄市平原区地下水平均埋深进行了模拟预测。在对两种预测模型模拟预测结果进行对比之后,选取遗传BP神经网络预测模型分别在石家庄市开展地下水超采综合治理和不开展地下水超采综合治理两种情况下对2016-2021年石家庄市平原区地下水平均埋深进行了预测分析。石家庄市平原区不同地区地下水位下降速度和幅度存在较大差异,西部、北部、东北部及西南部小区域内地下水位下降幅度较小,中部、南部和东部地区地下水位下降幅度较大,东南部地下水位下降最为严重。通过研究对比发现,与不进行地下水超采综合治理相比,石家庄市地下水超采综合治理可有效降低地下水位下降的速度,在未来一段时期内可取得较好的治理效果。
[Abstract]:For a long time, with the rapid development of China's economy, water resources are increasingly short, especially in North China. In order to meet the needs of regional social development, the groundwater in North China has been overexploited for many years, which has caused serious environmental problems. The plain area of Shijiazhuang City is a typical area of overmining groundwater resources in North China Plain. Due to the long-term over-exploitation of groundwater and the imbalance of recharge and drainage, the groundwater level in Shijiazhuang Plain has dropped rapidly, and a number of underground water funnels have been formed in the area. In recent decades, the scale of groundwater funnel has become larger and caused geological environmental problems such as ground fissure, collapse and so on. In view of the situation that the groundwater level in Shijiazhuang City is constantly falling and the scope of the groundwater drop funnel is increasing, Shijiazhuang City has carried out comprehensive treatment of groundwater overmining. There are two main ways to control the situation. One is to strengthen the construction of the supporting project of the South-to-North Water transfer Project. To make full use of the Yangtze River water allocated by the South-to-North Water transfer to replace the groundwater mined in the water-receiving area, second, to implement groundwater pressure mining, and to combine water saving in construction, water saving and agronomic water saving through strengthening the construction of water-saving projects. Improve the efficiency and efficiency of industrial and agricultural water use, save groundwater resources and reduce groundwater exploitation. By collecting the historical data of groundwater level, groundwater exploitation, rainfall, gross national product (GNP) and so on from 1980 to 2015 in Shijiazhuang Plain area, this paper deals with the historical variation characteristics and rainfall of groundwater level and groundwater exploitation in Shijiazhuang Plain area. The relationship between gross national product (GNP) and groundwater level is analyzed. By using multivariate linear regression analysis and genetic BP neural network algorithm, the prediction model of groundwater buried depth in Shijiazhuang plain area was constructed, and the average groundwater buried depth in Shijiazhuang plain area was simulated. After comparing the simulation results of the two prediction models, The genetic BP neural network prediction model was selected to forecast and analyze the average buried depth of groundwater in Shijiazhuang Plain area in 2016-2021 under the conditions of comprehensive treatment of groundwater overexploitation and no comprehensive treatment of groundwater overexploitation. There are great differences in the speed and range of groundwater level decline in different regions of Shijiazhuang Plain area. In the west, north, northeast and southwest of Shijiazhuang, the decrease of groundwater level is relatively small, but in the middle, there is no significant difference between the two regions. In the south and east of China, the groundwater level has declined greatly, and the southeastern region is the most serious. By comparison, it is found that comprehensive treatment of groundwater overmining in Shijiazhuang City can effectively reduce the rate of groundwater level decline, and obtain better treatment effect in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P641.2

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