2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究

发布时间：2018-11-10 10:58

【摘要】：2017年8月8日四川省九寨沟发生7.0级地震,是继2008年汶川大地震和2013年芦山地震之后,四川省发生的又一次7.0级以上的强震。为了给现场救援和震后地质灾害防治提供科学依据,本文作者第一时间赶赴现场,并基于震前和震后高精度遥感影像,完成了震区地质灾害解译和复核工作,共解译地质灾害1883处,主要以中小型浅层滑坡和崩塌为主。基于解译结果,对同震灾害的空间分布规律和控制因素(距断层距离、地面峰值加速度PGA、高程、坡度和坡向等)进行了分析,研究表明地质灾害主要沿北西—南东向呈带状分布,且沿公路、沟谷较为发育,在野外推测发震断层2km范围内高度集中,呈现明显的断层效应,但与塔藏断层之间的空间相关性相对较弱。在上述分析的基础上,采用逻辑回归模型,利用地震、地形和地质3大因素(8个因子)对地质灾害易发性进行了快速评价和分区,经统计校验证明该模型的准确率达0.851,模型精度较高。
[Abstract]:An earthquake of magnitude 7.0 occurred in Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan province on August 8, 2017, another strong earthquake with magnitude 7.0 or above following the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and the Lushan earthquake in 2013. In order to provide scientific basis for field rescue and prevention and treatment of post-earthquake geological disasters, the author of this paper rushed to the scene at the first time, and based on the high-precision remote sensing images before and after the earthquake, he completed the interpretation and review of geological disasters in the earthquake area. A total of 1883 geological disasters were interpreted, mainly in small and medium shallow landslides and collapses. Based on the interpretation results, the spatial distribution and control factors (distance from fault, PGA, elevation, slope and direction of slope, etc.) of co-seismic disasters are analyzed. The study shows that the geological hazards are mainly distributed in a zonal direction along the NW-SE direction, and the trenches are relatively developed along the highway. The geological hazards are highly concentrated in the 2km range of the earthquake generating faults in the field and show obvious fault effects. But the spatial correlation with the fault is relatively weak. On the basis of the above analysis, using the logical regression model and using the seismic, topographic and geological factors (8 factors), the vulnerability of geological hazards is evaluated and zoned quickly. The accuracy of the model is 0.851by statistical verification. The accuracy of the model is high.
【作者单位】：地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学);
【基金】：国家自然科学基本组织间合作研究—NSFC-RCUK_NERC项目(中英) 汶川地震诱发地质灾害时空演化规律及风险评价研究(41661134010) 国家创新研究群体科学基金(41521002) 霍英东青年教师基金(151018)资助
【分类号】：P315;P694

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