不确定性条件下的下辽河平原地下水脆弱性评价及空间分布软区划

发布时间：2019-03-31 10:14

【摘要】：建立地下水脆弱性评价的DRASTICH模型,辨析各个参数的不确定性特征,采用随机模拟方法同时对随机性参数和模糊性参数模拟赋值。分别对模糊性参数和脆弱性指数统计值设立具有概率分布意义的置信水平和百分位,得到多重地下水脆弱性的指数区间,在此基础上,分别绘制地下水脆弱性的保守分布图和冒险分布图,并对研究区地下水脆弱性分布状况进行分析。结果表明:(1)以模糊区间形式表示的地下水脆弱性评价结果,能反映多种不确定因素综合影响下的地下水脆弱性客观实际情况,可提供更多可靠性方面的信息;(2)以软区划方式制作地下水脆弱性分布图,保留了不确定性客观存在的事实,可给予决策者更多参考信息和调整余地;(3)地下水脆弱性软区划分布图显示:保守分布的脆弱性程度总体要高于冒险分布,置信水平选择越高,冒险分布与保守分布的空间分布差异越接近,且与最大可能性分布情况越接近;(4)研究区地下水脆弱性分布具有明显的空间集聚现象,地下水高脆弱性区域主要集聚在下辽河平原中部和南部地区,低脆弱性区域一般分布在下辽河平原东、西两侧地区。
[Abstract]:The DRASTICH model of groundwater vulnerability assessment is established, and the uncertainty characteristics of each parameter are analyzed. The random parameter and fuzzy parameter are simulated and evaluated simultaneously by random simulation method. On the basis of establishing confidence level and percentile of probability distribution for fuzzy parameters and vulnerability index statistics, the index interval of multiple groundwater vulnerability is obtained. The conservative distribution map and hazard distribution map of groundwater vulnerability are drawn, and the vulnerability distribution of groundwater in the study area is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the evaluation results of groundwater vulnerability in the form of fuzzy interval can reflect the actual situation of groundwater vulnerability under the comprehensive influence of many uncertain factors, and can provide more reliability information; (2) making groundwater vulnerability distribution map by soft regionalization, which preserves the fact that uncertainty exists objectively, and can give decision-makers more reference information and room for adjustment; (3) the map of groundwater vulnerability soft zone division shows that the vulnerability degree of conservative distribution is higher than that of risk distribution as a whole, and the higher the confidence level choice, the closer the difference of spatial distribution between risk distribution and conservative distribution is. And the closer to the maximum probability distribution; (4) the groundwater vulnerability distribution in the study area has obvious spatial accumulation phenomenon, the high vulnerability area of groundwater is mainly concentrated in the middle and south of the Lower Liaohe Plain, and the low vulnerability area is generally distributed in the east and west sides of the Lower Liaohe Plain.
【作者单位】：中山大学地理科学与规划学院;辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院;江苏省水利厅;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41431178;41671453) 广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030311016)资助~~
【分类号】：P641

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