多尺度联合驱动的城市增长模拟建模

发布时间：2018-01-27 12:37

本文关键词： 土地利用/土地覆盖变化元胞自动机多尺度空间规划广州市　出处：《地理与地理信息科学》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：元胞自动机是模拟土地利用时空演变的重要建模工具,但其经典框架主要根据历史变化规律进行空间"自下而上"驱动,这种模拟机制缺乏对宏观土地供需平衡以及空间发展政策等"自上而下"机制的整合,难以科学解释中长期土地利用变化过程。该文利用金字塔架构解释城市空间增长的复合驱动力,提出了"顶层土地供需平衡-中层空间政策引导-底层元胞状态演化"多尺度联合驱动的土地利用变化模拟框架。以广州都市区为案例,利用改进模型对其2010-2030年的城市扩张过程进行了模拟,并对结果进行了精度对比和案例举证。研究表明,多尺度联合驱动进一步增强了元胞自动机模型对现实世界的仿真能力,多尺度空间协同是地理时空过程建模的发展方向。
[Abstract]:Cellular automata (CA) is an important modeling tool to simulate the space-time evolution of land use, but its classical framework is mainly driven by spatial "bottom-up" according to the law of historical change. This simulation mechanism lacks the integration of macro-land supply and demand balance and "top-down" mechanism such as spatial development policy. It is difficult to explain the long-term land use change process scientifically. This paper uses the pyramid structure to explain the compound driving force of urban spatial growth. A multi-scale combined driving simulation framework of land use change is proposed, which is based on the equilibrium of land supply and demand at the top level, the policy guidance of middle space policy and the state evolution of the cell at the bottom. Taking Guangzhou metropolitan area as an example. The improved model is used to simulate the process of urban expansion from 2010 to 2030, and the accuracy of the results is compared with that of a case study. Multi-scale joint drive further enhances the ability of cellular automata model to simulate the real world. Multi-scale spatial collaboration is the development direction of geographical space-time process modeling.
【作者单位】：广东省国土资源技术中心/广东省基础地理信息中心;广州大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41401432、41531176) 广东省国土资源科研项目(GDGTKJ2016005)
【分类号】：P208;TU984.113
【正文快照】： 0引言土地利用变化模拟是“未来地球”计划研究的热点问题之一[1],能为许多政策制定提供分析依据,如探讨土地利用变化与碳排放之间的关系等[2]。土地利用变化是一个复杂的时空动态过程,传统基于数学方程的解析法难以模拟这种复杂的时空演化过程,而元胞自动机(Cellular Automat

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