岷江上游干旱河谷边界波动的定量判定及其演化特征

发布时间：2018-02-11 12:56

本文关键词： 干旱河谷边界波动演化特征风险管理岷江上游　出处：《山地学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在山区人口迅速增加和社会经济高速发展的进程中,干旱河谷作为山区生态系统的重要组成部分之一,承载了严重的被干扰和过度利用。在RS与GIS技术的支持下,本研究选择岷江上游干旱河谷作为研究对象,应用马尔科夫预测法和土地利用动态变化空间分析测算模型,开展干旱河谷边界波动的定量判定及其演化特征研究。研究结果表明:岷江上游干旱河谷区面积与上边界在逐年增加,上边界平均每年沿垂直方向抬升约5 m,在未来较长时间内,干旱河谷面积的增长趋势将会越来越强;其中,1970至2010年干旱河谷转化速率(TRL_(70-2010))呈现不断上升趋势,分别为TRL_(70)=1.44%,TRL_(80)=0.95%,TRL_(90)=2.32%,TRL_(2000)=2.45%,TRL_(2010)=3.59%;1990至2000年期间干旱河谷新增速率(IRL_(90-2000))最大,属于高速扩展期,在1970至1980年期间新增速率IRL_(70-80)最小;1990至2000年期间干旱河谷"敏感性"最高,其年变化速率(CCL_(90-2000))为13.01%,其次为CCL_(2000-2010)=6.51%,其余时期年均变化速率皆在4%左右。本研究结果可为我国西部灾害多发区聚落合理规划、灾害风险管理、人口合理分布与再调整提供重要的科学依据。
[Abstract]:In the mountain population is increasing rapidly and the rapid development of society and economy in the process of dry valley as an important part of the ecosystem of mountainous area, carrying serious interference and excessive use. In the RS with the support of GIS technology, this research chooses the upper reaches of Minjiang River as the research object, the application of Markoff method and land use dynamic change of spatial analysis model, study and evolution characteristics of quantitative analysis in the dry valley boundary fluctuation. The results show that the area of the upper reaches of Minjiang River area and the upper boundary in the upper boundary of the average annual increase year by year, along the vertical direction of uplift is about 5 m, a long time in the future, the arid valley area growth trend will become increasingly strong among them, 1970 to 2010; dry valley conversion rate (TRL_ (70-2010)) showed a rising trend, respectively TRL_ (70) =1.44%, TRL_ (80) =0.95%, TRL_ (90) =2.32%, TRL_ (2000) =2.45%, TRL_ (2010) =3.59%; during the period from 1990 to 2000 the new rate of dry valley (IRL_ (90-2000)), belongs to the high speed period of expansion, the new rate of IRL_ during the period from 1970 to 1980 (minimum 70-80); 1990 to 2000 during the dry valley "sensitive" highest, the annual change rate (CCL_ (90-2000)) was 13.01%, followed by CCL_ (2000-2010) =6.51%, the rest period is approximately 4% in average annual change rate. The results of this study can be reasonable planning for the settlement of Western disaster prone area, disaster risk management, population distribution and re adjustment provide important scientific basis.

【作者单位】：西南科技大学环境与资源学院;重庆市彭水苗族土家族自治县水务局;
【基金】：四川省青年科技基金项目(2017JQ0051) 国家自然科学基金项目(41371185) 教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目(工程科技人才培养研究)(15JDGC019)~~
【分类号】：F301.2;P208;P237

【相似文献】