基于GIS的潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 01:10

本文选题：暴雨洪涝 + 损失评估　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球气候变化的不断加剧,极端灾害性天气事件频发。在气象灾害中,暴雨洪涝灾害的发生频次较高,给人类社会造成了极大的生命财产损失,制约了社会和经济的可持续发展。暴雨洪涝灾害的损失评估可以为防洪救灾决策提供重要依据,是防灾减灾的一项基础性工作和有效途径,具有十分重要的意义。本文利用GIS技术实现了人口及各大产业GDP数据的空间化模拟,对潍坊市33次暴雨洪涝灾害过程分别进行评价指数的估算,构建基于暴雨洪涝灾害综合评价指数的直接经济损失率、农业经济损失率评估模型。并以潍坊市2007年8月10日暴雨洪涝灾害过程为例,对一次灾害过程进行损失评估,通过对比灾情损失的统计数据进行误差分析。研究结果表明：①模拟获得100×100米空间分辨率的人口及各产业GDP空间分布图,模拟结果能够较好的表征潍坊市社会经济数据的空间分布趋势,与现实情况基本相符。②基于社会经济空间化数据的潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害评价指数与直接经济损失率存在较好的指数相关关系,相关系数为0.872；同时与农业经济损失率存在良好的线性关系,相关系数为0.842,可以构建基于灾害评价指数的直接经济损失率模型和农业经济损失率模型。③通过损失率评估模型与社会经济空间化数据对潍坊市一次灾害过程进行损失评估,获得100×100米空间分辨率的直接经济损失、农业经济损失空间分布图,估算的损失结果与实际灾情统计数据基本一致,且误差均在合理范围,评估结果较为可靠。
[Abstract]:With the increasing of global climate change, extreme disastrous weather events occur frequently.In the meteorological disasters, the frequent occurrence of rainstorm flood and waterlogging has caused great loss of life and property to human society and restricted the sustainable development of society and economy.The loss assessment of torrential rain and flood disaster can provide important basis for the decision of flood control and disaster relief. It is a basic work and an effective way for disaster prevention and mitigation. It is of great significance.In this paper, the spatial simulation of GDP data of population and major industries is realized by using GIS technology, and the evaluation index of 33 torrential rain and waterlogging disasters in Weifang is estimated.The evaluation model of direct economic loss rate and agricultural economic loss rate based on the comprehensive evaluation index of torrential rain and flood disaster is established.Taking the torrential rain and flood disaster process of Weifang city on August 10, 2007 as an example, the loss assessment of a disaster process is carried out, and the error analysis is carried out by comparing the statistical data of disaster loss.The results show that the GDP spatial distribution map of population and industries with a spatial resolution of 100 脳 100m is obtained by the 1: 1 simulation. The simulation results can well represent the spatial distribution trend of the social and economic data in Weifang.The evaluation index of rainstorm flood and waterlogging disaster in Weifang city has a good exponential correlation with the direct economic loss rate based on the social and economic spatial data.The correlation coefficient is 0.872.There is a good linear relationship with the loss rate of agricultural economy.The correlation coefficient is 0.842. The direct economic loss rate model based on the disaster evaluation index and the agricultural economic loss rate model .3 can be used to evaluate the losses of a disaster process in Weifang City through the loss rate assessment model and the socio-economic spatial data.The direct economic loss of 100 脳 100 m spatial resolution and the spatial distribution map of agricultural economic loss are obtained. The estimated loss results are basically consistent with the statistical data of the actual disaster situation, and the errors are within a reasonable range, and the evaluation results are more reliable.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P208;P426.616

【引证文献】