福建省近500a台风灾害多尺度时空数据库构建及动态分析

发布时间：2018-05-31 05:48

本文选题：台风灾害 + 福建省　；参考：《福建师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国是世界上少数几个受台风影响最严重的国家之一,每年夏、秋季节台风都会给东南沿海地区人民造成重大损失。由于福建省靠近世界上最大的台风源地(西北太平洋),是台风灾害最严重的省份之一。登陆福建的台风,具有暴雨强、路径复杂、结构和强度变化大、灾害严重等特点,是福建省最主要的气象灾害。随着福建省沿海地区经济和人口的快速发展,台风的危害性日趋严峻。目前,对台风灾害时空格局的分析主要基于台风发生频数,尚局限于对致灾因子的时空分布的描述,对因台风灾害造成损失的格局分析研究还比较欠缺。如何利用历史台风灾害资料及灾损数据建立历史台风灾害时空数据库,并进行动态可视化表达,对历史台风灾害时空格局进行分析,揭示了福建省历史台风灾害的时空变化规律,对灾害风险评估与防范具有重大意义。本文采用地理信息系统(Geographical Information System, GIS)技术,利用上海复旦大学“中国历史地理信息系统”项目中的福建省县级、府级行政区划沿革空间数据库,以及《福建省历史上重大自然灾害年表》、《福建省历史上自然灾害记录》(修订版)、《中国气象灾害大典(福建卷)》等历史台风资料,构建福建省近500年历史台风灾害时空数据库,以实现对历史台风灾害的多尺度时空格局分析。由于台风灾害评估涉及面广,加之时间尺度大,灾情资料的多样性,本文将结合实际分时段选择不同灾情因子对历史台风灾害进行数据库的构建及动态分析。建库前首先对历史资料、统计数据、地理信息数据等进行归一化处理,例如,历史地名、受灾时间以及统计数据的归一化。1900-1950年台风灾害,引入“灾度”的概念,制定分级标准并划分灾情等级,并将分级结果以视频的形式进行动态可视化表达；1951～2000年台风灾害,通过选择指标及评估模型的方式,分年度、分地区计算“灾情指数”,并结合二次开发组件ArcGIS Engine结合Visual Studio2005平台设计灾情可视化界面。以上述两种方式对福建省历史台风灾害时空格局进行动态分析,同时从地市级、县级两种空间单元分时段对福建省台风灾害发生频次、灾情指数、灾情等级等因子进行分析。结果表明：近500年福建台风灾害多发生于6-10月份,受灾程度深、受灾频次高的地区均集中在漳州市、莆田市、宁德市、福州市、厦门市各沿海地市,受灾频数由沿海向陆地大体上呈递减的趋势,但局部地区受灾程度和受灾频数并无相关性。福建省历史台风灾害数据库的构建为时空格局分析,灾害风险分析及防范提供了重要科学依据。
[Abstract]:China is one of the few countries most seriously affected by typhoons in the world. Every summer and autumn typhoons cause great losses to the people in southeast coastal areas. Fujian Province is one of the most seriously affected provinces because of its proximity to the largest typhoon source in the world, the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Typhoon landing in Fujian is the most important meteorological disaster in Fujian province because of its strong rainstorm, complicated path, large change in structure and intensity, serious disaster, and so on. With the rapid development of economy and population in the coastal area of Fujian Province, the harmfulness of typhoon is becoming more and more serious. At present, the analysis of the temporal and spatial pattern of typhoon disaster is mainly based on the frequency of typhoon occurrence, but it is limited to the description of the temporal and spatial distribution of the disaster factors, and the analysis and research on the loss pattern caused by the typhoon disaster is still lacking. How to make use of the historical typhoon disaster data and the disaster damage data to establish the historical typhoon disaster time and space database, and carry on the dynamic visualization expression, carries on the analysis to the historical typhoon disaster time and space pattern. The temporal and spatial variation of historical typhoon disasters in Fujian Province is revealed, which is of great significance for disaster risk assessment and prevention. In this paper, geographical Information System, GIS) technology is adopted, and the spatial database of the evolution of administrative divisions at county and prefectural level in Fujian Province is used in the project of "Chinese Historical Geographic Information system" of Shanghai Fudan University. And historical typhoon data such as "chronology of Major Natural disasters in the History of Fujian Province", "record of Natural disasters in the History of Fujian Province" (revised edition), "China Meteorological disaster Dictionary (Fujian Volume)", and other historical typhoon data, to construct temporal and spatial database of historical typhoon disasters in Fujian Province in the past 500 years. In order to realize the multi-scale temporal and spatial pattern analysis of historical typhoon disaster. Due to the wide range of typhoon disaster assessment, the large time scale and the diversity of disaster data, this paper will select different disaster factors to construct and dynamically analyze the historical typhoon disaster database. The historical data, statistical data and geographic information data were normalized before the establishment of the database. For example, the concept of "disaster degree" was introduced into the normalization of historical place names, disaster time and statistical data. The classification standard was established and the disaster level was classified, and the classification results were visualized in the form of video to express the typhoon disaster from 1951 to 2000. By selecting the index and evaluating model, the disaster index was calculated year by year, and the disaster index was calculated by region. Combined with secondary development component ArcGIS Engine and Visual Studio2005 platform to design a visual disaster interface. The temporal and spatial patterns of historical typhoon disasters in Fujian Province are analyzed dynamically by the two methods mentioned above. At the same time, the occurrence frequency, disaster index and disaster grade of typhoon disasters in Fujian Province are analyzed from two spatial units at the city level and the county level. The results show that in recent 500 years, most of the typhoon disasters in Fujian occurred in June and October, and the most affected areas were concentrated in Zhangzhou City, Putian City, Ningde City, Fuzhou City, Xiamen City, and the coastal cities of Xiamen City, such as Zhangzhou City, Putian City, Fuzhou City and Xiamen City. The frequency of disaster is decreasing from coastal to land, but there is no correlation between the degree of disaster and the frequency of disaster in local area. The construction of historical typhoon disaster database in Fujian Province provides an important scientific basis for the analysis of temporal and spatial patterns, disaster risk analysis and prevention.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P208;P444

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