SARS空间数据库构建与时间序列建模仿真

发布时间：2018-06-07 14:52

本文选题：GIS + SARS　；参考：《贵州财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自然因素和社会因素影响SARS的扩散，其中自然因素涵盖了气候因子、地理位置、土壤成分、动物及植物等等，由于这些因素的存在，使得SARS流行因素显得尤其复杂，其中以气候因子与地理位置对SARS流行过程的影响最为突出。所以，，我们研究了SARS传播和地理信息之间的相关性，然后建立了空间时序模型，并进行了模拟仿真。通过分析相关数据和已有文献[1]，我们发现对于SARS影响最为严重的是自然环境的气候因子,也就是NDVI。本文利用ArcGIS9.3对SARS信息进行数据的采集和管理，然后建立了包含SARS流行影响因素信息的空间数据库，并且模拟了SARS病例活动范围的控制以及通过分析这些数据得到对SARS病例进行救治的最佳路径，最后我们利用非线性曲线拟合对SARS发生期间的确诊人数和死亡人数进行曲线拟合。通过分析我们发现所得到的拟合曲线可以有效的预测SARS的疫情，并且对延迟和提前采取措施可能会产生的影响做出了合理的分析。本文的主要从以下三个方面进行研究： (1)归一化植被指数NDVI与SARS传染性疾病的关系。因为北京区域（NDVI）直接影响区域植被覆盖情况，从而导致气候的变化，SARS的传播最重要的一个因素就是气候变化。 (2)应用ArcGIS9.3对北京区域地图进行数据采集，并建立关于SARS相关数据的空间数据库。 (3)应用统计学软件R对SARS感染群体进行统计和分析。并对确诊人数以及死亡人数进行曲线拟合。
[Abstract]:Natural factors and social factors affect the diffusion of SARS, in which natural factors cover climate factors, geographical location, soil composition, animals and plants, etc. because of the existence of these factors, the SARS epidemic factors are particularly complex, among which climate factors and geographical locations have the most prominent influence on the epidemic of SARS. The correlation between SARS propagation and geographic information is studied, then the spatial time series model is established and simulated.
Through the analysis of relevant data and the existing literature [1], we found that the most serious impact on the SARS is the climate factor of the natural environment, that is, the NDVI. this article uses ArcGIS9.3 to collect and manage the data of SARS information, and then establishes a spatial database containing the information of the SARS popular influencing factors, and simulates the SARS case activity model. The optimal path for the treatment of SARS cases is obtained by analyzing these data. Finally, we use the nonlinear curve fitting to curve the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths during the occurrence of SARS. Through analysis we find that the obtained fitting curve can predict the epidemic situation of SARS and the delay and the delay. A reasonable analysis is made of the possible impact of early measures.
This paper mainly studies the following three aspects:
(1) the relationship between the normalized vegetation index NDVI and the SARS infectious disease. Because the Beijing region (NDVI) directly affects the regional vegetation coverage, resulting in climate change, the most important factor in the spread of SARS is climate change.
(2) use ArcGIS9.3 to collect data of Beijing regional map and establish spatial database on SARS related data.
(3) statistics and analysis of SARS infected groups were conducted by using statistical software R, and the number of confirmed and death figures was fitted.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P208

【参考文献】