基于GIS的山东省台风灾害评估-1985-2010年

发布时间：2018-07-10 00:11

本文选题：台风灾害评估 + 标准化方法　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：山东省是台风灾害的高发区，有史以来由台风带来的影响颇为严重，面临较大的台风灾害威胁。本文基于对1985-2010年间的多种历史资料和数据以及风暴潮灾害模拟结果的分析对山东省成灾台风进行了灾害评估。为减少不同时期社会经济发展水平对灾害损失评估结果的影响，本文采用标准化方法分析评估了各年的灾害损失。采用模糊数学的方法建立了综合定量指标，利用所建立的指标综合地考察了台风灾害的影响。风暴潮是台风灾害的主要致灾因子之一，本文利用ADCIRC海洋模型对山东省台风风暴潮进行了数值模拟。通过对风暴潮灾害成灾机制、灾害时空分布特征、风暴潮过程与台风路径的关系进行分析发现，山东省台风风暴潮灾害与台风强度、路径、受灾地区地形地貌有关，呈现显著的区域差异。本文利用GIS作为技术平台建立了山东省台风灾害评价系统，，将历年台风灾情与人文、社会、地理要素相结合，基于地理信息系统进行了灾害综合评估。评估结果表明，标准化的台风灾害损失情况呈逐年下降趋势，山东省台风灾害带来的综合影响逐年降低，并呈现地域差异，具有明显的时空分布特征。利用地理信息系统平台进行了各致灾因子作用的综合分析，结果表明，台风各致灾因子往往不是单独出现的，当多种致灾因子迭加时会带来较为严重的影响，造成重大经济损失和人员伤亡。本文重视并强调台风灾害多方面、各因子的综合影响，通过对1985-2010年期间山东省成灾台风的研究，将灾害损失、灾害机制、社会环境因子的影响、区域年代际差异等要素综合分析，分析了山东台风灾害的演变规律和灾害社会影响要素。本文研究结果可望为山东省沿海地区台风灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。
[Abstract]:Shandong Province is an area with high incidence of typhoon disasters, which has been seriously affected by typhoons in history and is facing a great threat of typhoon disasters. Based on the analysis of various historical data and data from 1985 to 2010 as well as the results of storm surge disaster simulation, the disaster assessment of the disastrous typhoon in Shandong Province has been carried out in this paper. In order to reduce the influence of the level of social and economic development on the results of disaster loss assessment in different periods, this paper uses standardized method to analyze and evaluate the disaster loss in each year. The comprehensive quantitative index is established by using fuzzy mathematics method, and the influence of typhoon disaster is investigated synthetically by using the established index. Storm surge is one of the main disaster factors of typhoon disaster. The ADCIRC ocean model is used to simulate typhoon storm surge in Shandong province. Through the analysis of the mechanism of storm surge disaster, the characteristics of disaster time and space distribution, the relationship between storm surge process and typhoon path, it is found that typhoon storm surge disaster in Shandong Province is related to typhoon intensity, path, terrain and geomorphology in the affected area. There were significant regional differences. In this paper, the evaluation system of typhoon disaster in Shandong Province is established by using GIS as the technical platform. The disaster assessment system is based on GIS, which combines typhoon disaster situation with human, social and geographical elements. The evaluation results show that the losses of standardized typhoon disasters are decreasing year by year, and the comprehensive effects of typhoon disasters in Shandong Province are decreasing year by year, showing regional differences, with obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. The comprehensive analysis of the effects of various disaster factors is carried out by using the GIS platform. The results show that the typhoon disaster factors often do not appear alone, and when a variety of disaster factors are superimposed, they will bring more serious effects. Causing heavy economic losses and casualties. This paper emphasizes the comprehensive influence of various aspects and factors of typhoon disaster. Through the study of typhoon in Shandong Province from 1985 to 2010, the effects of disaster loss, disaster mechanism and social environmental factors are discussed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of regional decadal differences, the evolution law of typhoon disaster and its social impact elements in Shandong Province are analyzed. The results of this study are expected to provide a reference for the prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters in coastal areas of Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P208;P444

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