基于CA-Markov和GIS的芒市土地利用变化模拟及预测研究
发布时间：2018-07-15 09:36
【摘要】：土地是人类社会和经济发展的重要基础之一,对土地利用\覆盖变化的特征和规律的研究是一切人类活动的基础性课题。尤其近几年来,我国城市化进程的加速引发了一系列的社会及生态问题,比如土地资源浪费、生态环境恶化、人地矛盾加剧等问题,对人类可持续性发展提出了更高的要求。因而了解土地利用变化/覆盖的规律对加强土地利用规划的协调与引导作用,促进土地利用方式和管理方式的转变,综合协调社会经济发展、耕地保护和生态环境保护三者的土地利用关系具有极其重要的意义。在此背景下,本文研究概括了国内外土地利用/覆盖研究进展,并以此为切入点,提出研究的目的及意义。然后明确研究的主要内容,并针对研究内容提出科学合理的研究方法。本论文是在基于IDRISI软件为平台,运用CA-Markov模型作为本次论文中对土地利用变化模拟预测的模型,根据2009-2013年芒市土地利用变更调查数据,作者主要从土地利用数量、程度、结构等方面对芒市土地利用变化进行宏观分析。在此基础上,依靠Arcgis软件对造成这些结果的主要驱动因子进行分析归纳,所得变化规律为获取各土地利用类型的限制性图集的前提。最后确定模型的其余参数后运行CA-Markov模型,对芒市在2017年的土地利用的变化状况进行模拟预测研究,评价结果证明模型精度可行。这不仅可以在未来为芒市国土部门决策拟定、政策实施提供科学依据,也在一定程度上拓宽了CA-Markov模型在小尺度范围土地利用变化中的研究。
[Abstract]:Land is one of the important foundations of human social and economic development. The study of the characteristics and laws of land use / cover change is the basic subject of all human activities. Especially in recent years, the acceleration of urbanization in our country has led to a series of social and ecological problems, such as the waste of land resources, the deterioration of ecological environment, the intensification of contradiction between man and land, and so on, which put forward higher requirements for the sustainable development of human beings. Therefore, to understand the law of land use change / cover to strengthen the coordination and guidance of land use planning, to promote the transformation of land use and management, and to coordinate social and economic development, The land use relationship between cultivated land protection and ecological environment protection is of great significance. Under this background, this paper summarizes the research progress of land use / cover both at home and abroad, and puts forward the purpose and significance of the research. Then the main contents of the study are defined, and scientific and reasonable research methods are put forward in view of the research contents. This paper is based on IDRISI software platform, using CA-Markov model as the model of land use change simulation prediction in this paper. According to the survey data of land use change from 2009 to 2013, the author mainly from the land use quantity, degree. Structure and other aspects of land use change in Mango macro-analysis. On this basis, the main driving factors causing these results are analyzed and summarized by Arcgis software, and the law of change is the premise of obtaining the restrictive maps of each land use type. Finally, CA-Markov model was run after the other parameters of the model were determined, and the land use change in Mango city in 2017 was simulated and forecasted. The evaluation results proved that the accuracy of the model was feasible. This will not only provide a scientific basis for the decision making and policy implementation of the land department of Mango in the future, but also broaden the study of CA-Markov model in small-scale land use change to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P208;F301.2
，
本文编号：2123633
[Abstract]:Land is one of the important foundations of human social and economic development. The study of the characteristics and laws of land use / cover change is the basic subject of all human activities. Especially in recent years, the acceleration of urbanization in our country has led to a series of social and ecological problems, such as the waste of land resources, the deterioration of ecological environment, the intensification of contradiction between man and land, and so on, which put forward higher requirements for the sustainable development of human beings. Therefore, to understand the law of land use change / cover to strengthen the coordination and guidance of land use planning, to promote the transformation of land use and management, and to coordinate social and economic development, The land use relationship between cultivated land protection and ecological environment protection is of great significance. Under this background, this paper summarizes the research progress of land use / cover both at home and abroad, and puts forward the purpose and significance of the research. Then the main contents of the study are defined, and scientific and reasonable research methods are put forward in view of the research contents. This paper is based on IDRISI software platform, using CA-Markov model as the model of land use change simulation prediction in this paper. According to the survey data of land use change from 2009 to 2013, the author mainly from the land use quantity, degree. Structure and other aspects of land use change in Mango macro-analysis. On this basis, the main driving factors causing these results are analyzed and summarized by Arcgis software, and the law of change is the premise of obtaining the restrictive maps of each land use type. Finally, CA-Markov model was run after the other parameters of the model were determined, and the land use change in Mango city in 2017 was simulated and forecasted. The evaluation results proved that the accuracy of the model was feasible. This will not only provide a scientific basis for the decision making and policy implementation of the land department of Mango in the future, but also broaden the study of CA-Markov model in small-scale land use change to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P208;F301.2
，
本文编号：2123633
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