地基GPS水汽反演的误差分析与资料应用
发布时间：2018-08-16 09:39
【摘要】：GPS探测大气水汽的技术迅速发展和逐渐成熟,使得地基GPS气象学基本理论得以发展和完善,地基GPS大气水汽监测网的积极建设以及其观测资料的共享也为获取高时间分辨率的大气水汽资料奠定了基础,地基GPS气象学正逐渐从技术研究阶段步入业务化应用阶段。本论文的目标是研究如何基于高密度的观测资料获取高精度的水汽产品,并结合探空资料、NECP再分析资料、多普勒雷达资料以及卫星资料有效地应用于灾害性天气预报分析中,研究内容包括地基GPS不同水汽反演方法的改进及误差分析、地基GPS大气水汽解算系统开发和建立、GPS大气水汽探测资料在天气预报分析中的应用等方面。方法与结果如下： 1.结合2007-2008年探空资料对大气加权平均温度和天顶静力延迟模型进行本地化订正。加权平均温度本地化订正后可以明显地减小其与探空Tm的偏差,计算精度与Bevis Tm模型等方法相比明显提高。在对天顶静力延迟模型进行本地化订正后可显著减小其与探空可降水量的偏差,提高其准确度,上述两种改进都不会不影响大气可降水量反演模型的精度。同时,研究发现天顶静力延迟模型精度受地面气压比地面温度的影响大。因此,减小地面气压的测量误差可提高天顶静力延迟ZHD误差的精度。 2.基于上述改进,建立地基GPS大气水汽解算系统。实现每30分钟一次高精度水汽解算数据。得到各测站每半时的高精度水汽分布。编写的自动化解算脚本适用于Linux系统,移植性很强。 3.利用成都2007-2008年的地基GPS/MET网的观测资料,并根据改进的大气加权平均温度模型和天顶静力延迟模型计算大气可降水量,结合降雨资料分析其日变化、季节性变化以及降雨发生前后的变化特征,从中统计出降水和强降水阈值准确性较高,可靠性好,可为预报员的临近预报服务提供参考信息； 4.由于地基GPS仅提供大气中的水汽条件,要想全面分析灾害性天气发生过程,就要结合大气中的动力和热力结构特征。本研究充分利用探空资料、NECP再分析资料、多普勒雷达资料以及风云卫星资料进行了分析,结果表明：暴雨发生前对流层呈现上干下湿的结构特征,且低层大气不稳定能量较明显；高时间分辨率的地基GPS资料不仅可以获得水汽的实时变化的信息,而且对于暴雨的发生时间和暴雨的强度都有一定的指示性；结合中尺度数值模拟的结果,分析发现降水与否或降水大小不仅取决于大气中水汽含量的多少,水汽辐合的强弱以及云团的发展具有关键作用。
[Abstract]:The technology of detecting atmospheric water vapor by GPS has developed rapidly and gradually matured, which makes the basic theory of ground-based GPS meteorology develop and perfect. The active construction of ground-based GPS atmospheric water vapor monitoring network and the sharing of its observation data also lay the foundation for obtaining atmospheric water vapor data with high temporal resolution. The ground-based GPS meteorology is gradually moving from the technical research stage to the operational application stage. The purpose of this paper is to study how to obtain high precision water vapor products based on high density observation data, and to effectively apply the NECP reanalysis data, Doppler radar data and satellite data to the analysis of disastrous weather. The research contents include the improvement and error analysis of different water vapor inversion methods for foundation GPS, the development of ground-based GPS atmospheric water vapor calculation system and the establishment of the application of GPS atmospheric water vapor detection data in weather forecast and analysis. Methods and results are as follows: 1. The atmospheric weighted mean temperature and zenith static delay model are localized based on the 2007-2008 radiosonde data. The deviation between weighted mean temperature and sounding TM can be obviously reduced after localization correction, and the calculation precision is improved obviously compared with Bevis TM model. After localized correction of the zenith static delay model, the deviation from the radiosonde precipitable water can be significantly reduced, and its accuracy can be improved. Neither of the above two improvements will affect the accuracy of the atmospheric precipitable water inversion model. At the same time, it is found that the accuracy of the zenith static delay model is more affected by the surface pressure than the surface temperature. Therefore, the accuracy of ZHD error of zenith static delay can be improved by reducing the measurement error of ground pressure. Based on the above improvements, a ground-based GPS atmospheric vapor solution system is established. The high precision water vapor solution data is realized every 30 minutes. The high accuracy water vapor distribution of each station is obtained every half hour. The automatic solution script written for Linux system, portability is very strong. 3. Based on the observation data of GPS/MET network in Chengdu from 2007 to 2008, and based on the improved atmospheric weighted mean temperature model and the zenith static delay model, the precipitation of the atmosphere is calculated, and the daily variation of precipitation is analyzed by combining the rainfall data. Seasonal variation and change characteristics before and after the occurrence of rainfall, from which the high accuracy of precipitation and strong precipitation threshold, good reliability, can provide reference information for forecasters' near forecast service; 4. Because the ground-based GPS only provides the water vapor condition in the atmosphere, in order to analyze the occurrence process of the disastrous weather, it is necessary to combine the characteristics of the dynamic and thermal structure in the atmosphere. This study makes full use of sounding data and NECP reanalysis data, Doppler radar data and wind-cloud satellite data for analysis. The results show that the troposphere presents the structural characteristics of upper dryness and wetness before the rainstorm occurs. The low layer atmospheric instability energy is obvious, the high time resolution ground-based GPS data can not only obtain the information of the real time variation of water vapor, but also can indicate the occurrence time and the intensity of rainstorm. Based on the results of mesoscale numerical simulation, it is found that the precipitation or not depends not only on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, but also on the convergence of water vapor and the development of cloud clusters.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P228.4;P405
本文编号：2185600
[Abstract]:The technology of detecting atmospheric water vapor by GPS has developed rapidly and gradually matured, which makes the basic theory of ground-based GPS meteorology develop and perfect. The active construction of ground-based GPS atmospheric water vapor monitoring network and the sharing of its observation data also lay the foundation for obtaining atmospheric water vapor data with high temporal resolution. The ground-based GPS meteorology is gradually moving from the technical research stage to the operational application stage. The purpose of this paper is to study how to obtain high precision water vapor products based on high density observation data, and to effectively apply the NECP reanalysis data, Doppler radar data and satellite data to the analysis of disastrous weather. The research contents include the improvement and error analysis of different water vapor inversion methods for foundation GPS, the development of ground-based GPS atmospheric water vapor calculation system and the establishment of the application of GPS atmospheric water vapor detection data in weather forecast and analysis. Methods and results are as follows: 1. The atmospheric weighted mean temperature and zenith static delay model are localized based on the 2007-2008 radiosonde data. The deviation between weighted mean temperature and sounding TM can be obviously reduced after localization correction, and the calculation precision is improved obviously compared with Bevis TM model. After localized correction of the zenith static delay model, the deviation from the radiosonde precipitable water can be significantly reduced, and its accuracy can be improved. Neither of the above two improvements will affect the accuracy of the atmospheric precipitable water inversion model. At the same time, it is found that the accuracy of the zenith static delay model is more affected by the surface pressure than the surface temperature. Therefore, the accuracy of ZHD error of zenith static delay can be improved by reducing the measurement error of ground pressure. Based on the above improvements, a ground-based GPS atmospheric vapor solution system is established. The high precision water vapor solution data is realized every 30 minutes. The high accuracy water vapor distribution of each station is obtained every half hour. The automatic solution script written for Linux system, portability is very strong. 3. Based on the observation data of GPS/MET network in Chengdu from 2007 to 2008, and based on the improved atmospheric weighted mean temperature model and the zenith static delay model, the precipitation of the atmosphere is calculated, and the daily variation of precipitation is analyzed by combining the rainfall data. Seasonal variation and change characteristics before and after the occurrence of rainfall, from which the high accuracy of precipitation and strong precipitation threshold, good reliability, can provide reference information for forecasters' near forecast service; 4. Because the ground-based GPS only provides the water vapor condition in the atmosphere, in order to analyze the occurrence process of the disastrous weather, it is necessary to combine the characteristics of the dynamic and thermal structure in the atmosphere. This study makes full use of sounding data and NECP reanalysis data, Doppler radar data and wind-cloud satellite data for analysis. The results show that the troposphere presents the structural characteristics of upper dryness and wetness before the rainstorm occurs. The low layer atmospheric instability energy is obvious, the high time resolution ground-based GPS data can not only obtain the information of the real time variation of water vapor, but also can indicate the occurrence time and the intensity of rainstorm. Based on the results of mesoscale numerical simulation, it is found that the precipitation or not depends not only on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, but also on the convergence of water vapor and the development of cloud clusters.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P228.4;P405
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