基于GIS和元胞自动机的艾滋病传播研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 14:26

【摘要】：元胞自动机是复杂系统研究的重要工具,依据简单的局部转换规则可以模拟出复杂的现象,应用于流行病传播研究中为流行病预防提供依据；地理信息系统具有强大的空间分析模块,可用于流行病的空间分布特征研究,找到影响流行病传播的各种可能因素。基于元胞自动机的流行病传播模型是一种简单高效的动态系统,地理信息系统可以存储大量空间数据,具有强大的对静态空间数据的分析功能,结合元胞自动机传播模型动态演化数据以及地理信息系统的数据分析功能,集成二者,发挥各自的优势,在统一地图平台下创建基于元胞自动机的集成系统,可以实时分析和显示数据,得到更加真实的流行病传播模拟效果,为流行病传播研究提供了一个新思路,具有一定的现实意义。本文考虑将MapX组件嵌入到CA中的集成方法,建立一个基于流行病数据的可以动态模拟传播过程的新系统,’系统的完成主要通过VC++编程实现。该集成系统主要由两部分组成,一部分是系统的内部驱动机制,也是系统的核心部分,基于元胞自动机的流行病传播模型,定义影响流行病传播的各类参数,例如：元胞状态、元胞传染强度、元胞抵抗力、邻居构成、传染概率等参数,结合具体的空间数据可以不断的改进各参数值以及定义方法,优化元胞自动机传播模型以及状态跟新规则；另外一部分就是系统的图形显示部分,通过MapX的数据绑定操作以及依据单一属性、多属性的专题图制作方法,将绑定的初始数据以及元胞自动机传播模型的模拟结果数据在地图平台上图形化显示出来,得到系统的可视化界面,进一步研究分析流行病的传播特点。最后应用文中所提出的理论和方法,以武汉市十三个行政区11年的艾滋病统计数据为例,进行数据预处理,简单空间分析(基于统计数据的单一属性、多属性专题图)及不同初始条件下元胞自动机传播模型的两次模拟,得到可能的传播结果图,将模拟数据与真实数据进行对比,进一步证实了这一集成系统在流行病传播领域中应用的可行性。本文的创新点： (1)扩展了元胞自动机传播模型。引入实际的地图数据作为元胞空间显得更加真实,参照具体对象的实际位置信息,例如：居住地址或者所在地的经纬度坐标等,计算两点的实际距离,优化地理邻居的定义,结合空间对象的空间数据以及感染数据,优化传播模型的转换规则。 (2)使用MapX的对地理数据的分析显示功能,为元胞自动机模型的图形化界面显示提供了新的途径。基于状态属性字段值制作专题图,可以清晰的显示出具体地图背景下,元胞自动机传播模型的模拟结果图。
[Abstract]:Cellular automata (CA) is an important tool in the study of complex systems. Complex phenomena can be simulated according to simple local transformation rules and can be applied to epidemic transmission research to provide evidence for epidemic prevention. Geographic Information system (GIS) has a powerful spatial analysis module, which can be used to study the spatial distribution characteristics of epidemic and find out the possible factors that affect the spread of epidemic. The epidemic transmission model based on cellular automata is a simple and efficient dynamic system. Geographic Information system (GIS) can store a large amount of spatial data and has a powerful function of analyzing static spatial data. Combining the dynamic evolvement data of cellular automata propagation model and the data analysis function of GIS, integrating the two and giving play to their respective advantages, an integrated system based on cellular automata is established under the unified map platform. It can analyze and display the data in real time and get a more real simulation effect of epidemic transmission. It provides a new idea for the study of epidemic transmission and has certain practical significance. In this paper, the integration method of embedding MapX components into CA is considered, and the completion of a new system based on epidemic data, which can simulate the propagation process dynamically, is mainly realized by VC programming. The integrated system consists of two parts, one is the internal driving mechanism of the system, and the other is the core part of the system. Cell infection intensity, cellular resistance, neighborhood composition, infection probability and other parameters, combined with the specific spatial data can be continuously improved each parameter value and definition method, optimize the cellular automata propagation model and state with the new rules; The other part is the graphic display part of the system, through the data binding operation of MapX and the method of making thematic map based on single attribute and multi-attribute. The bound initial data and the simulated result data of the cellular automata propagation model are graphically displayed on the map platform, and the visual interface of the system is obtained, and the transmission characteristics of the epidemic are further studied and analyzed. Finally, using the theory and method proposed in this paper, taking the 11 years AIDS statistics in 13 administrative regions of Wuhan as an example, the data preprocessing and simple spatial analysis (based on the single attribute of statistical data) are carried out. Multiple attribute thematic maps) and two simulations of cellular automata propagation model under different initial conditions, the possible propagation result diagrams are obtained, and the simulated data are compared with real data. The feasibility of the application of the integrated system in the field of epidemic transmission is further confirmed. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) the cellular automata propagation model is extended. It is more realistic to introduce the actual map data as the cellular space. With reference to the actual location information of the specific object, such as the residence address or the latitude and longitude coordinates of the location, the actual distance between the two points is calculated, and the definition of the geographical neighbor is optimized. Combining spatial data and infection data of spatial objects, the transformation rules of propagation model are optimized. (2) using MapX's function of analyzing and displaying geographic data, it provides a new way to display graphical interface of cellular automata model. Based on the value of state attribute field, we can clearly show the simulation results of cellular automata propagation model under the background of specific map.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R512.91;P208;TP301.1

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