基于Holt-Winters的电离层总电子含量预报
发布时间：2018-12-07 17:27
【摘要】：利用IGS中心提供的不同经纬度平静期、活跃期14d的电离层TEC格网点数据,以前8d的TEC值作为样本序列,分别采用Holt-Winters加法模型和乘法模型建立TEC预报模型,并预报后6d的TEC值。结果表明,无论在电离层平静期还是活跃期,2种模型所得预报结果大致相同,并与实际观测数据吻合较好,但加法模型的预测结果能更好地反映电离层TEC的变化特性。
[Abstract]:Using the ionospheric TEC dot data of different longitude and latitude calm period and active period 14 days, and TEC value of 8 days before as sample sequence, the TEC prediction model is established by Holt-Winters addition model and multiplication model, respectively. The TEC value was predicted 6 days later. The results show that the predicted results of the two models are approximately the same in the ionospheric quiescent period and the active period, and are in good agreement with the observed data. However, the prediction results of the additive model can better reflect the variation characteristics of ionospheric TEC.
【作者单位】： 桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院;广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室;钦州学院资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41664002;41541032;41064001) 广西自然科学基金(2015GXNSFAA139230) 广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室基金(15-140-07-11;15-140-07-29) 广西“八桂学者”岗位专项 广西研究生教育创新计划(YCSZ2015163)~~
【分类号】：P228.4;P352
，
本文编号：2367560
[Abstract]:Using the ionospheric TEC dot data of different longitude and latitude calm period and active period 14 days, and TEC value of 8 days before as sample sequence, the TEC prediction model is established by Holt-Winters addition model and multiplication model, respectively. The TEC value was predicted 6 days later. The results show that the predicted results of the two models are approximately the same in the ionospheric quiescent period and the active period, and are in good agreement with the observed data. However, the prediction results of the additive model can better reflect the variation characteristics of ionospheric TEC.
【作者单位】： 桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院;广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室;钦州学院资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41664002;41541032;41064001) 广西自然科学基金(2015GXNSFAA139230) 广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室基金(15-140-07-11;15-140-07-29) 广西“八桂学者”岗位专项 广西研究生教育创新计划(YCSZ2015163)~~
【分类号】：P228.4;P352
，
本文编号：2367560
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