基于小波-ARIMA电离层短期总电子含量预报
发布时间：2018-12-12 06:07
【摘要】：针对电离层总电子含量(TEC)非线性、非平稳的特性,将小波分析(Wavelet Analysis)引入到自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)中对TEC值进行预报。采用2010—2013年IGS中心提供的不同经纬度活跃期、平静期前10天电离层TEC观测数据,分别使用WARIMA和ARIMA建模预报后5天TEC值。对两种模型预报结果与IGS中心观测数据进行对比并统计预报精度,结果表明引入小波分析的ARIMA模型对TEC值预报精度的提高有良好作用。最后单独采用WARIMA模型预报50天TEC值,通过对50天TEC预报值相对精度的统计,说明WARIMA模型对TEC值中长期的预报具有可行性。
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者单位】： 桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院;桂林理工大学广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41541032) 广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室项目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(KY2016YB189) 广西“八桂学者”岗位专项经费项目 研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSZ2015163)
【分类号】：P228.4;P352
本文编号：2374064
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者单位】： 桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院;桂林理工大学广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41541032) 广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室项目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(KY2016YB189) 广西“八桂学者”岗位专项经费项目 研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSZ2015163)
【分类号】：P228.4;P352
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