局域地基GPS遥感水汽的理论及应用研究

发布时间：2018-12-17 15:44

【摘要】：水汽在天气系统能量传输中至关重要,所以水汽的实时监测对研究灾害性天气形成机理和预报有重要价值。局域CORS网因其实时观测、高精度、高分辨率及耗费低等优点被广泛应用于局域地基GPS水汽研究中,特别是局部地区特大暴雨的预报研究和台风灾害天气的演化机理分析。我国区域性CORS网布设越来越完善,但各区域气象环境存在差异,所以针对局域地基GPS水汽分析理论有待深入研究。本文以香港为局域研究对象,探索了局域模型构建方法,分析了局域特殊天气中GPS水汽的演化特征。主要研究内容如下:1)阐述了局域地基GPS遥感水汽的基础理论,重点分析了高精度GPS分析软件Gamit和Bernese在GPS遥感水汽中的参数设置。2)考虑到Bevis公式运用到局域Tm计算中精度有所下降和王晓英公式的时效性,本文利用香港45004号探空站近两年数据建立了局域Tm单因子和多因子模型,得到较高的局地Tm计算精度。3)研究了香港地区ZTD时空特征,建立了局域ZTD高差改正模型;将ARIMA模型运用到高精度单站ZTD短期预报中,得到mm级预报精度;基于局域CORS网建立了区域ZTD内插模型,且模拟内插精度达到毫米级。4)验证了PPP技术解算区域CORS网的ZTD精度;论证了PPP技术运用到局域气象分析中的可行性;分析了基于PPP技术解算的CORS网ZTD模拟内插精度,研究得出该精度可达到经验模型精度。5)分析了3次典型特大暴雨期间局域地基GPS水汽的演化特征,得出实际降水量的大小与GPS/PWV高低无直接关系,与GPS/PWV减少幅度及局部地形有关。6)分析了台风“鹦鹉”登陆香港前后区域地基GPS/PWV的演化特征,研究得出GPS/PWV峰值出现在距离台风约120km处,且台风登陆中并不会造成GPS/PWV震荡;台风逼近过程中,局地气压变化呈“V”字形先降后升,期间气压会出现低频震荡,高程越大震荡越早且越剧烈。7)因高精度GPS分析软件功能不足,局域Tm模型不能直接运用到局域地基GPS/PWV计算中,本文采用C++语言编写了GPS水汽辅助计算程序,提高了数据计算效率。
[Abstract]:Water vapor plays an important role in the energy transmission of weather system, so the real-time monitoring of water vapor is of great value in studying the formation mechanism and prediction of disastrous weather. Because of its advantages of real-time observation, high precision, high resolution and low cost, the local CORS network is widely used in the study of local ground GPS water vapor, especially in the prediction of heavy rain in local areas and the analysis of the evolution mechanism of typhoon disaster weather. The arrangement of regional CORS network in China is more and more perfect, but the meteorological environment of each region is different, so the theory of local ground GPS water vapor analysis needs to be deeply studied. In this paper, we take Hong Kong as the local research object, explore the method of local model construction, and analyze the evolution characteristics of GPS water vapor in local special weather. The main research contents are as follows: 1) the basic theory of local ground GPS remote sensing water vapor is expounded. The parameter setting of high precision GPS analysis software Gamit and Bernese in remote sensing water vapor of GPS is analyzed emphatically. 2) considering that the precision of Bevis formula applied to local Tm calculation has been decreased and the timeliness of Wang Xiaoying formula has been taken into account. Based on the data of Hong Kong sounding station 45004 in recent two years, the local Tm single-factor and multi-factor models are established, and the local Tm calculation accuracy is obtained. 3) the spatio-temporal characteristics of ZTD in Hong Kong are studied, and the local ZTD height correction model is established. The ARIMA model is applied to the high-precision single-station ZTD short-term prediction, and the mm stage prediction accuracy is obtained, and the regional ZTD interpolation model is established based on the local CORS net, and the simulated interpolation accuracy reaches millimeter level. 4) the ZTD accuracy of the PPP technique is verified to solve the regional CORS net. The feasibility of applying PPP technology to local meteorological analysis is demonstrated. The interpolation accuracy of CORS net ZTD simulation based on PPP technique is analyzed, and it is found that the precision can reach the precision of empirical model. 5) the evolution characteristics of local ground GPS water vapor during three typical heavy rainfall periods are analyzed. It is concluded that the actual precipitation is not directly related to GPS/PWV, but to the reduction of GPS/PWV and local topography. 6) the evolution characteristics of ground GPS/PWV in the area before and after typhoon parrot landing in Hong Kong are analyzed. The results show that the peak value of GPS/PWV appears at the distance from typhoon 120km, and the GPS/PWV oscillation does not occur during the landfall of typhoon. In the process of typhoon approaching, the local pressure changes in the shape of "V" and then rises, during which the pressure will appear low frequency oscillation, the greater the height is, the earlier and more violent. 7) because of the lack of function of the high-precision GPS analysis software, The local Tm model can not be directly applied to the calculation of local ground GPS/PWV. In this paper, the GPS water vapor aided calculation program is compiled with C language, which improves the efficiency of data calculation.
【学位授予单位】：贵州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P228.4;P407

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