基于GIS技术的分布式融雪模型及融雪径流预报系统的设计与应用

发布时间：2018-12-27 07:35

【摘要】：融雪径流，一方面是中高纬地带和山区重要淡水资源来源之一；另一方面，其又在一定条件下，以融雪洪水的形式对当地人民生命财产及工农业生产设施造成巨大的破坏。因此，有必要对融雪径流形成机制进行分析和研究，进而为当地防汛、抗旱及水资源利用等问题提供重要决策支持。而建立融雪水文模型及融雪径流预报系统是模拟径流形成过程、进行防汛抗旱预报及水资源配置管理的主要途径。由于融雪径流的形成过程受植被、积雪特性、季节性冻土层及其它水文、气象因素的综合影响，本文构建了一个分布式融雪径流模型（以下简称ARSSVM：Arid Region Soil-Snow-Vegetation snowmelt hydrology Model），同时又设计并开发了新疆中短期融雪径流预报信息系统，最后，利用该系统对军塘湖河流域春季融雪径流过程进行预报、模拟研究。文章首先结合新疆春季融雪径流过程的特点，并在分析融雪径流过程中植被冠层、积雪、土壤间的水热交换过程及融雪产汇流过程的基础上，利用大气数值预报数据、遥感数据等，建立了ARSSVM模型；之后，本文又采用面向对象的方法，同时基于.NET技术及SuperMap GIS开发平台，设计并开发了一个接口统一、功能较为通用的融雪径流预报信息平台；最后，文章以军塘湖流域为典型研究区，向系统中引入ARSSVM模型组件，，并利用本系统对该研究区2011年及2013年春季融雪径流过程进行了模拟和预报，2011年模拟结果显示：模拟的流量过程线的走向与实测流量过程线较为匹配，模型整体模拟效率系数达到83.9%，洪峰峰值误差基本控制在30%以内，同时得到其对2013年融雪径流的预报精度等级为乙级。综合可见，一方面说明了本文所设计开发的融雪径流预报信息平台在融雪径流水文预报业务中的可行性及适用性；另一方面也表明本文所建立的ARSSVM模型可以较好的预报和模拟流域春季融雪径流及洪水过程，进而为融雪洪水防范及融雪水资源管理提供重要参考。
[Abstract]:Snowmelt runoff, on the one hand, is one of the important sources of fresh water resources in the middle and high latitudes and mountainous areas; on the other hand, under certain conditions, it causes great damage to local people's lives, property and industrial and agricultural production facilities in the form of snowmelt floods. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and study the formation mechanism of snowmelt runoff so as to provide important decision support for local flood control, drought resistance and water resources utilization. The establishment of snowmelt hydrological model and snowmelt runoff forecasting system is the main way to simulate the process of runoff formation, flood prevention and drought prevention and water resources allocation and management. Because the formation process of snowmelt runoff is influenced by vegetation, snow characteristics, seasonal frozen soil and other hydrological and meteorological factors, a distributed snowmelt runoff model (ARSSVM:Arid Region Soil-Snow-Vegetation snowmelt hydrology Model),) is constructed in this paper. At the same time, we design and develop the short and medium term snowmelt runoff forecasting information system in Xinjiang. Finally, we use the system to forecast and simulate the snowmelt runoff process in the Juntang Lake River basin in spring. Based on the characteristics of snowmelt runoff process in Xinjiang in spring, and based on the analysis of the processes of water and heat exchange among vegetation canopy, snow cover and soil, and the convergence process of snowmelt production in Xinjiang, the atmospheric numerical prediction data are used in this paper. The ARSSVM model is established for remote sensing data. Then, based on .NET technology and SuperMap GIS development platform, we design and develop a unified snowmelt runoff forecasting information platform with unified interface and general function. Finally, taking the Juntang Lake Basin as the typical research area, the paper introduces the ARSSVM model module into the system, and simulates and forecasts the snowmelt runoff process in the spring of 2011 and 2013 by using the system. The simulation results in 2011 show that the trend of the simulated flow process line matches the measured flow process line, and the overall simulation efficiency coefficient of the model is 83.90.The peak error of Hong Feng is basically controlled within 30%. At the same time, the forecast precision grade of snowmelt runoff in 2013 is Grade B. On the one hand, the feasibility and applicability of the snowmelt runoff forecast information platform designed in this paper are illustrated. On the other hand, it also shows that the ARSSVM model can forecast and simulate the spring snowmelt runoff and flood process, and provide important reference for the prevention of snowmelt flood and the management of snowmelt water resources.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P338;P208

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