基于GIS的潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害影响评估研究
发布时间：2019-06-12 18:58
【摘要】：随着现代科学技术水平的提高与全球化趋势的发展,气候变化和气象灾害问题受到世界各国的普遍关注。暴雨洪涝灾害成为气象灾害中最为常见和最具威胁性的气象灾害之一,同时也是人类社会共同面临和关注的重大问题。建立暴雨洪涝灾害影响评估模型对制定防灾减灾预案、减少人口伤亡和减少人民财产损失有着重要意义。 本文将历次灾情统计数据进行均一性分析,筛选出均一性较好的灾情数据；基于GIS技术对潍坊市人口、GDP统计数据进行空间化,构建了潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害影响评估模型,并以一次暴雨洪涝灾害过程为例,对该过程进行影响评估。最后模拟此次灾害过程每3小时影响指数分布情况,用小时降雨数据进行对比验证分析。研究结果表明：①通过灾情数据的质量控制后得到的灾情数据相关性显著提高；②利用泰森多边形法空间化的人口统计数据结果与基于土地利用类型数据的GDP空间化结果平均误差(绝对值)分别为13.7%和5.51%,空间化结果与实际空间分布基本一致；③根据空间化结果与选取的影响因子,采用模糊综合评价方法与层次分析法计算潍坊市历次暴雨洪涝灾害影响指数,并计算灾情指数进行验证,验证结果表明模拟的暴雨洪涝灾害与实际灾情数据等级的一致率为70.97%,灾害影响指数与灾情指数相关系数为0.72,灾害影响指数与直接经济损失相关系数为0.69,灾情指数与直接经济损失相关系数为0.74；④对潍坊市一次暴雨洪涝灾害过程进行影响评估,并计算每3小时暴雨洪涝灾害影响指数分布,通过与气象站小时降水数据对比,模型能较好的对潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害影响评估。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of modern science and technology and the development of globalization, climate change and meteorological disasters have been paid more and more attention all over the world. Torrential rain and flood disaster has become one of the most common and threatening meteorological disasters, and it is also a major problem that human society faces and pays close attention to. The establishment of rainstorm and flood disaster impact assessment model is of great significance to the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation plan, the reduction of population casualties and the reduction of people's property losses. In this paper, the statistical data of previous disasters are analyzed uniformly, and the data with good uniformity are screened out. Based on GIS technology, the statistical data of population and GDP in Weifang City are spatialized, and the impact assessment model of rainstorm and flood disasters in Weifang City is constructed, and the impact assessment of this process is carried out by taking a rainstorm flood disaster process as an example. Finally, the influence index distribution of the disaster process is simulated every 3 hours, and the hourly rainfall data are compared and analyzed. The results show that: (1) the correlation of disaster data obtained by quality control of disaster data is significantly improved, (2) the average error (absolute value) between the results of population statistics using Tyson polygons and the results of spatial GDP based on land use type data are 13.7% and 5.51%, respectively, and the spatial results are basically consistent with the actual spatial distribution. (3) according to the spatial results and selected influencing factors, the influence index of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the disaster index is calculated to verify the results. The verification results show that the consistency rate between simulated rainstorm flood disaster and actual disaster data grade is 70.97%, and the correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and disaster index is 0.72. The correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and direct economic loss is 0.69, and that between disaster index and direct economic loss is 0.74. (4) the impact assessment of a rainstorm flood disaster process in Weifang City is carried out, and the influence index distribution of rainstorm flood disaster every 3 hours is calculated. By comparing with the hourly precipitation data of meteorological stations, the model can better evaluate the impact of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P426.616;P208
本文编号：2498232
[Abstract]:With the improvement of modern science and technology and the development of globalization, climate change and meteorological disasters have been paid more and more attention all over the world. Torrential rain and flood disaster has become one of the most common and threatening meteorological disasters, and it is also a major problem that human society faces and pays close attention to. The establishment of rainstorm and flood disaster impact assessment model is of great significance to the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation plan, the reduction of population casualties and the reduction of people's property losses. In this paper, the statistical data of previous disasters are analyzed uniformly, and the data with good uniformity are screened out. Based on GIS technology, the statistical data of population and GDP in Weifang City are spatialized, and the impact assessment model of rainstorm and flood disasters in Weifang City is constructed, and the impact assessment of this process is carried out by taking a rainstorm flood disaster process as an example. Finally, the influence index distribution of the disaster process is simulated every 3 hours, and the hourly rainfall data are compared and analyzed. The results show that: (1) the correlation of disaster data obtained by quality control of disaster data is significantly improved, (2) the average error (absolute value) between the results of population statistics using Tyson polygons and the results of spatial GDP based on land use type data are 13.7% and 5.51%, respectively, and the spatial results are basically consistent with the actual spatial distribution. (3) according to the spatial results and selected influencing factors, the influence index of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the disaster index is calculated to verify the results. The verification results show that the consistency rate between simulated rainstorm flood disaster and actual disaster data grade is 70.97%, and the correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and disaster index is 0.72. The correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and direct economic loss is 0.69, and that between disaster index and direct economic loss is 0.74. (4) the impact assessment of a rainstorm flood disaster process in Weifang City is carried out, and the influence index distribution of rainstorm flood disaster every 3 hours is calculated. By comparing with the hourly precipitation data of meteorological stations, the model can better evaluate the impact of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P426.616;P208
【参考文献】
中国期刊全文数据库 前10条
1 姚正兰;王君军;罗晓松;付云鸿;钱洁;谢刚;;遵义市2010年7月8～13日暴雨洪涝特征及影响评估[J];安徽农业科学;2011年07期
2 王秀萍;隋洪起;吴萍;祝青林;尹文昱;;大连市2010年气候特征及影响评估[J];安徽农业科学;2011年22期
3 韩平;程先富;;洪水灾害损失评估研究综述[J];环境科学与管理;2012年04期
4 陈述彭,陈秋晓,周成虎;网格地图与网格计算[J];测绘科学;2002年04期
5 王春菊,汤小华;基于GIS的福建省人口统计数据空间化[J];地理与地理信息科学;2004年04期
6 叶靖;杨小唤;江东;;乡镇级人口统计数据空间化的格网尺度效应分析——以义乌市为例[J];地球信息科学学报;2010年01期
7 李春梅;刘锦銮;潘蔚娟;罗晓玲;;暴雨综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用[J];广东气象;2008年04期
8 郭志鹄;吴胜安;邓见英;;暴雨洪涝灾害影响评估若干问题探讨[J];广东气象;2008年05期
9 康相武;吴绍洪;戴尔阜;杨勤业;刘自强;杨佩国;马新;赵锐锋;;大尺度洪水灾害损失与影响预评估[J];科学通报;2006年S2期
10 赵焕臣;和金生;许树柏;;层次分析法在科技管理中的应用[J];科学学与科学技术管理;1985年06期
，本文编号：2498232
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/dizhicehuilunwen/2498232.html
