基于ARIMA模型的ECMWF压强预测
发布时间：2019-06-24 19:01
【摘要】：压强是地基GPS反演水汽时的一个关键参数,而实测压强值或NWM提供的参考压强值经常无法得到,这时一般采用经验模型GPT系列模型进行压强计算,但是GPT系列模型精度较低,特别是在南极等地区,影响水汽的精度。本文引入时间序列分析的方法,基于ECMWF提供的全球高时空分辨率的高精度压强序列进行ARIMA模型的建模及预测,结果表明,3天以内精度均在2hPa以内,5天以内精度在5hPa以内,短期预报满足精度要求,可以作为一种有效的压强计算方法用于水汽反演中。
[Abstract]:Pressure is a key parameter in water vapor inversion by ground-based GPS, but the measured pressure value or the reference pressure value provided by NWM can not be obtained. At this time, the empirical model GPT series model is generally used to calculate the pressure, but the accuracy of GPT series model is low, especially in Antarctica and other areas, which affects the accuracy of water vapor. In this paper, the method of time series analysis is introduced to model and predict the ARIMA model based on the high precision pressure series with high temporal and spatial resolution provided by ECMWF. The results show that the accuracy within 3 days is less than 2hPa and the accuracy within 5 days is less than 5hPa. Short-term prediction meets the accuracy requirements, and can be used as an effective pressure calculation method in water vapor inversion.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学测绘学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41174012;41274022) 国家863计划资助项目(2013AA122502) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-12-0428)~~
【分类号】：P228.4
本文编号：2505288
[Abstract]:Pressure is a key parameter in water vapor inversion by ground-based GPS, but the measured pressure value or the reference pressure value provided by NWM can not be obtained. At this time, the empirical model GPT series model is generally used to calculate the pressure, but the accuracy of GPT series model is low, especially in Antarctica and other areas, which affects the accuracy of water vapor. In this paper, the method of time series analysis is introduced to model and predict the ARIMA model based on the high precision pressure series with high temporal and spatial resolution provided by ECMWF. The results show that the accuracy within 3 days is less than 2hPa and the accuracy within 5 days is less than 5hPa. Short-term prediction meets the accuracy requirements, and can be used as an effective pressure calculation method in water vapor inversion.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学测绘学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41174012;41274022) 国家863计划资助项目(2013AA122502) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-12-0428)~~
【分类号】：P228.4
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