考虑休眠的两部件系统可用度马氏建模方法
发布时间：2018-08-07 12:04
【摘要】：针对Metric模型中假设备件需求不依赖于可用系统数而导致可用度被低估的问题,考虑部件的休眠状态(即故障系统中无故障部件不产生备件需求的情况),提出一种两部件系统可用度马氏建模方法。利用可用系统数、备件库存以及备件短缺数描述备件状态,根据连续时间马尔可夫链方法,分析不同部件的故障修复过程对状态转移的影响,构建了两组马尔可夫随机过程;随后,分析两种随机过程间的联系,将其合并后建立了备件的马尔可夫状态转移模型;进而利用该模型求解各备件期望短缺数EBO(expected backorders)以及系统可用度的稳态值与瞬时值;最后将模型应用于数值案例,得到了比Metric模型更接近仿真值的备件期望短缺数与系统可用度。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the spare parts demand is not dependent on the number of available systems in the Metric model, the availability is underestimated. Considering the dormancy state of the components (that is, the fault free parts in the fault system do not produce spare parts), a Markov modeling method for the system availability of two components is proposed. According to the method of continuous time Markov chain, the influence of fault repair process of different parts on state transition is analyzed, and two groups of Markov stochastic processes are constructed. Then, the relationship between the two stochastic processes is analyzed, and the Markov state transfer model of spare parts is established, and then the expected shortage of spare parts EBO (expected backorders) and the steady-state and instantaneous values of system availability are solved by the model. Finally, the model is applied to a numerical case, and the expected shortage of spare parts and the availability of the system are obtained, which are closer to the simulation value than the Metric model.
【作者单位】： 北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院;中国船舶工业集团公司系统工程部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61304148)、青年科学基金(61304148)、面上项目(61573041)资助
【分类号】：TH17
本文编号：2169966
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the spare parts demand is not dependent on the number of available systems in the Metric model, the availability is underestimated. Considering the dormancy state of the components (that is, the fault free parts in the fault system do not produce spare parts), a Markov modeling method for the system availability of two components is proposed. According to the method of continuous time Markov chain, the influence of fault repair process of different parts on state transition is analyzed, and two groups of Markov stochastic processes are constructed. Then, the relationship between the two stochastic processes is analyzed, and the Markov state transfer model of spare parts is established, and then the expected shortage of spare parts EBO (expected backorders) and the steady-state and instantaneous values of system availability are solved by the model. Finally, the model is applied to a numerical case, and the expected shortage of spare parts and the availability of the system are obtained, which are closer to the simulation value than the Metric model.
【作者单位】： 北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院;中国船舶工业集团公司系统工程部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61304148)、青年科学基金(61304148)、面上项目(61573041)资助
【分类号】：TH17
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