我国交通运输设备制造业能耗强度变动研究
发布时间：2018-10-17 08:41
【摘要】：交通运输设备制造业在一国或地区工业化过程中的地位和作用十分突出，其是国民经济发展的重要基础工业。改革开放以来，我国交通运输设备制造业得到了长足发展，但与发达国家相比，仍存在诸多问题，其中能耗较高日益影响到行业的可持续发展。在当前能源紧缺和环境污染已成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的主要矛盾的背景下，研究我国交通运输设备制造业能耗强度变动的影响因素、影响机理、影响效应及其未来趋势极为重要。 本文依据能源的消耗对象及供给来源将能耗强度区分为直接能耗强度和完全能耗强度，按照现状研究-机理研究-优化研究-对策研究的思路，运用波动理论、物理-事理-人理系统方法论，向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、结构分解分析、DEA-Malmquist指数法、非线性优化模型等理论方法，展开对我国交通运输设备制造业能耗强度的变动研究。主要研究内容包括以下几个方面： （1）运用物理-事理-人理系统方法论分析了我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度变动的影响因素。根据方法论内涵，物理因素主要包括设计技术、建造技术、管理技术；事理因素主要包括行业结构、能耗结构、投资结构及进出口结构等；人理因素包括节能意识、能源政策、宏观经济、节能措施。通过研究发现，技术因素对直接能耗强度降低作用最为明显；1980-1995年汽车制造业比重与直接能耗强度呈现明显的正相关关系，但具有一定滞后性，1996-2010年二者波动关系相对不明显；煤炭消耗比重的下降，其他能耗比重的上升有利于直接能耗强度的下降；总体上我国交通运输设备制造业外商直接投资与直接能耗强度变动呈反向关系；宏观经济景气指数及波罗的海干散货运价指数与直接能耗强度呈反向变动关系，且宏观经济景气指数影响效应较大。 （2）采用VAR、IRF和VD探究了多因素对我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度变动的影响效应，结果表明：①汽车制造业比重、汽车制造业直接能耗强度、外商直接投资、固定资产投资、煤炭消费比重对我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度的影响周期较长，影响时滞分别为4年、10年、10年、8年、8年，而能源价格对直接能耗强度的影响时滞为3年，影响周期较短。②我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度的影响因素按重要程度排序为：完全能耗强度自身汽车制造业比重外商直接投资能耗结构技术进步固定资产投资能源价格。 （3）利用结构分解分析（SDA）方法研究了我国交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度变化的深层次动因。结果表明：从完全能耗强度变动的原因看，降低完全能耗强度的首要因素是技术（包括能源技术和生产技术），其次是增加值，，而导致完全能耗强度上升的因素是最终需求因素。从中短时期来看，出口拉高了交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度，而增加值、能源技术及进口大都降低了交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度，在1997-2002年，2002-2007年和2005-2007年期间，生产技术促使完全能耗强度下降，其余期间使完全能耗强度上升。最终消费变化在1995-1997年，2002-2007年，2005-2007年间导致完全能耗强度升高，而在1997-2002年，2002-2005年间促使完全能耗强度降低；而除1997-2002年外，在其他各区间，投资对完全能耗强度的效应正好与消费相反。以7-10年为周期分析，增加值、能源技术、生产技术、投资因素对完全能耗强度均起降低作用；出口和其他对完全能耗强度起增加作用；消费和进口的影响规律较不明显，但影响方向正好相反。 （4）构建了完全能耗强度变动的非线性优化模型并对优化后的我国交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度的变动情况进行了分析。研究表明：当不断调整行业结构、投资与消费系数、进口与出口系数时，完全能耗强度也随之变化。当我国交通运输设备制造业工业增加值达到34519.61亿元，汽车制造业、船舶制造业及其他交通运输设备制造业比重分别为58.97%、17.01%、24.02%，消费、投资、出口及进口系数分别为0.0598、0.3024、0.064、0.0648时，完全能耗强度达到最小值0.9307tce/万元，实现2015年完全能耗强度下降20%的目标。
[Abstract]:The position and role of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in the industrialization of a country or region is very prominent, which is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy. Since the reform and opening-up, China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry has developed greatly, but there are still many problems in comparison with the developed countries, among which the energy consumption is more and more affected to the sustainable development of the industry. Under the background of current energy shortage and environmental pollution has become the main contradiction that restricts the sustainable development of China's economy and society, it is of great importance to study the influencing factors, the influence mechanism, the influence effect and the future trend of the energy consumption intensity fluctuation of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in our country. In this paper, the energy consumption intensity is divided into direct energy consumption intensity and complete energy consumption intensity according to the energy consumption object and the supply source, Theoretical methods such as method theory, vector autoregressive model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, structure decomposition analysis, DEA-Malmquist index method, nonlinear optimization model, etc. The main research contents include the following: Aspect: (1) The change of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is analyzed by using the methodology of physical-affairs-human theory system. According to the connotation of methodology, the physical factors mainly include design technology, construction technology and management technology; the main factors include industry structure, energy consumption structure, investment structure and import and export structure, etc. Energy-saving measures. Through the research, the effect of technical factors on the reduction of direct energy consumption is most obvious; in 1980-1995, the proportion of automobile manufacturing industry is positively correlated with the direct energy consumption intensity, but it has a certain hysteresis, and the fluctuation relationship between 1996 and 2010 is relatively insignificant; coal consumption The decrease of specific gravity, the rise of other energy consumption proportion is beneficial to the decrease of direct energy consumption intensity; in general, the direct investment and direct energy consumption intensity change of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry In the reverse relationship, the macroeconomic sentiment index and the Baltic dry bulk freight rate index are inversely related to the direct energy consumption intensity, and the macroeconomic performance index shadow Based on VAR, IRF and VD, the effect of multi-factors on the variation of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is investigated. The results show that the specific gravity of automobile manufacturing industry, the direct energy consumption intensity of automobile manufacturing industry and the foreign direct investment are discussed. The influence of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is four years, 10 years, 10 years, 8 years and 8 years respectively, and the effect of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity is 3 The influence factors of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry are ranked as follows: complete energy consumption intensity auto manufacturing industry proportion foreign direct investment energy consumption structure technology progress fixed Asset investment energy price. (3) Research on the complete energy of transportation equipment manufacturing in China by means of structure decomposition analysis (SDA) method. The results show that the primary factor for reducing the total energy consumption intensity is the technology (including energy technology and production technology), the second is the added value, which leads to the complete energy consumption intensity. The rising factor is the final demand factor. From the point of view, the export is the complete energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, while the added value, the energy technology and the import mostly reduce the total energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, during the period 1997-2002, 2002-2007 and 2005-2007, the production technology Operation causes complete energy consumption to fall, and the rest During the period of 1995-1997, 2002-2007, 2005-2007, the total energy consumption intensity increased, while in 1997-2002, the total energy consumption intensity was decreased in 2002-2005. In addition to 1997-2002, the investment had strong energy consumption in other sections. The effect of degree is just opposite to consumption. In the period of 7-10 years, the effects of cycle analysis, added value, energy technology, production technology and investment factors on total energy consumption intensity are reduced; export and other effects on complete energy consumption increase; and the effect of consumption and import is unclear. (4) The nonlinear optimization model of complete energy consumption intensity variation is constructed and the manufacturing of transportation equipment in China is completely optimized. The change of energy consumption intensity is analyzed. The research shows that when the industry structure, investment and consumption coefficient, inlet and outlet system are constantly adjusted At the same time, the total energy consumption intensity is also changed. When the added value of the manufacturing industry of China's transportation equipment is 19.61 billion Yuan, the proportion of manufacturing industry, ship manufacturing industry and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry is 58. 97%, 17. 01%, 24.02%, consumption, investment, export and import coefficient are 0. 0598, 0. 3024, respectively. When 0. 064, 0. 0648, the total energy consumption intensity reaches the minimum value of 0. 9307t/ ten thousand yuan, which is achieved in 2015.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.47
本文编号：2276121
[Abstract]:The position and role of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in the industrialization of a country or region is very prominent, which is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy. Since the reform and opening-up, China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry has developed greatly, but there are still many problems in comparison with the developed countries, among which the energy consumption is more and more affected to the sustainable development of the industry. Under the background of current energy shortage and environmental pollution has become the main contradiction that restricts the sustainable development of China's economy and society, it is of great importance to study the influencing factors, the influence mechanism, the influence effect and the future trend of the energy consumption intensity fluctuation of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in our country. In this paper, the energy consumption intensity is divided into direct energy consumption intensity and complete energy consumption intensity according to the energy consumption object and the supply source, Theoretical methods such as method theory, vector autoregressive model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, structure decomposition analysis, DEA-Malmquist index method, nonlinear optimization model, etc. The main research contents include the following: Aspect: (1) The change of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is analyzed by using the methodology of physical-affairs-human theory system. According to the connotation of methodology, the physical factors mainly include design technology, construction technology and management technology; the main factors include industry structure, energy consumption structure, investment structure and import and export structure, etc. Energy-saving measures. Through the research, the effect of technical factors on the reduction of direct energy consumption is most obvious; in 1980-1995, the proportion of automobile manufacturing industry is positively correlated with the direct energy consumption intensity, but it has a certain hysteresis, and the fluctuation relationship between 1996 and 2010 is relatively insignificant; coal consumption The decrease of specific gravity, the rise of other energy consumption proportion is beneficial to the decrease of direct energy consumption intensity; in general, the direct investment and direct energy consumption intensity change of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry In the reverse relationship, the macroeconomic sentiment index and the Baltic dry bulk freight rate index are inversely related to the direct energy consumption intensity, and the macroeconomic performance index shadow Based on VAR, IRF and VD, the effect of multi-factors on the variation of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is investigated. The results show that the specific gravity of automobile manufacturing industry, the direct energy consumption intensity of automobile manufacturing industry and the foreign direct investment are discussed. The influence of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is four years, 10 years, 10 years, 8 years and 8 years respectively, and the effect of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity is 3 The influence factors of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry are ranked as follows: complete energy consumption intensity auto manufacturing industry proportion foreign direct investment energy consumption structure technology progress fixed Asset investment energy price. (3) Research on the complete energy of transportation equipment manufacturing in China by means of structure decomposition analysis (SDA) method. The results show that the primary factor for reducing the total energy consumption intensity is the technology (including energy technology and production technology), the second is the added value, which leads to the complete energy consumption intensity. The rising factor is the final demand factor. From the point of view, the export is the complete energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, while the added value, the energy technology and the import mostly reduce the total energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, during the period 1997-2002, 2002-2007 and 2005-2007, the production technology Operation causes complete energy consumption to fall, and the rest During the period of 1995-1997, 2002-2007, 2005-2007, the total energy consumption intensity increased, while in 1997-2002, the total energy consumption intensity was decreased in 2002-2005. In addition to 1997-2002, the investment had strong energy consumption in other sections. The effect of degree is just opposite to consumption. In the period of 7-10 years, the effects of cycle analysis, added value, energy technology, production technology and investment factors on total energy consumption intensity are reduced; export and other effects on complete energy consumption increase; and the effect of consumption and import is unclear. (4) The nonlinear optimization model of complete energy consumption intensity variation is constructed and the manufacturing of transportation equipment in China is completely optimized. The change of energy consumption intensity is analyzed. The research shows that when the industry structure, investment and consumption coefficient, inlet and outlet system are constantly adjusted At the same time, the total energy consumption intensity is also changed. When the added value of the manufacturing industry of China's transportation equipment is 19.61 billion Yuan, the proportion of manufacturing industry, ship manufacturing industry and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry is 58. 97%, 17. 01%, 24.02%, consumption, investment, export and import coefficient are 0. 0598, 0. 3024, respectively. When 0. 064, 0. 0648, the total energy consumption intensity reaches the minimum value of 0. 9307t/ ten thousand yuan, which is achieved in 2015.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.47
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