煤矿险兆事件管理体系构建及有效性评价研究

发布时间：2017-12-30 22:04

本文关键词：煤矿险兆事件管理体系构建及有效性评价研究　出处：《西安科技大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：理论与实践表明,良好的险兆事件管理能有效减少事故的发生。而煤炭行业尚缺少险兆事件概念推广下的信息化、体系化管理。因此,本文探索性构建一套煤矿险兆事件管理体系并探索其有效性,以期为实现煤矿险兆事件有效管理奠定基础。本文在梳理险兆事件管理研究成果的基础上,从当前煤矿企业险兆事件管理现状出发,提出构建煤矿企业险兆事件管理体系的必要性。然后,通过分析PDCA模型用于险兆事件管理体系构建的优势,以及参考《职业健康安全管理体系规范》OHSAS18001-2007和《环境管理体系要求》ISO14001-2004的管理体系要素,提出了一套基于PDCA循环的煤矿险兆事件管理体系的理论框架。在此框架的基础上,进行了煤矿险兆事件管理体系的模块设计。模块设计从险兆事件管理计划与目标设定(P)、险兆事件管理实施与运行(D)、险兆事件管理结果检查(C)、险兆事件管理体系改进(A)四个模块着手,对其相关内容和要点进行阐述,细化了体系运行过程中的各个环节和具体内容,从而构建成一个具备可操作性、循环往复、螺旋式上升的煤矿险兆事件管理体系。同时,为了验证体系的有效性,并且帮助企业进行自我审查与评估,构建了一套结合了层次分析法和BP神经网络的煤矿险兆事件管理体系有效性评价模型。首先,运用修正式德尔菲法构建了一套由2个一级指标、7个二级指标、20个三级指标组成的险兆事件管理评价指标体系;然后,运用AHP层次分析法对各个指标体系进行权重赋值,并由15家煤矿单位给出其险兆事件管理体系评分;最后,设计了险兆事件管理体系有效性评价的BP神经网络构模型,并以层次分析法得出的评分结果作为样本,对BP神经网络进行了训练和测试。研究结果表明,该神经网络模型很好地获取并保存了专家进行险兆事件管理评价的知识、判断和经验,可以应用到工程实际中帮助煤矿企业对险兆事件管理体系有效性进行快速、科学的评价。
[Abstract]:Theory and practice show that good risk management can effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents, but the coal industry is still lack of information system management under the concept of risk and precursor events. This paper explores the construction of a coal mine risk management system and explore its effectiveness in order to establish a foundation for the effective management of coal mine risks. From the current situation of coal mine enterprise risk management, this paper puts forward the necessity of constructing a coal mine enterprise risk management system. Then, by analyzing the advantages of PDCA model used in the construction of risk and precursor event management system. And refer to "Occupational Health and Safety Management system Specification" OHSAS18001-2007 and "Environmental Management system requirements" ISO14001-2004 management system elements. This paper presents a theoretical framework of coal mine risk management system based on PDCA cycle. The module design of the management system of coal mine risk omega event is carried out. The module design includes the risk management plan and target setting, the implementation and operation of the management of the dangerous precursory event, and the inspection of the result of the management of the dangerous event. The four modules of risk management system improvement (A) begin to elaborate its relevant contents and key points, refine each link and concrete content in the running process of the system, and construct a system with maneuverability. In order to verify the effectiveness of the system and to help enterprises to conduct self-review and evaluation. This paper constructs a set of effective evaluation model of coal mine risk management system combining AHP and BP neural network. Firstly, a set of two primary indicators is constructed by using the modified formal Delphi method. The evaluation index system of risk and precursor event management is composed of 7 secondary indexes and 20 third-level indexes. Then, the weight of each index system is assigned by AHP Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the risk and precursor event management system score is given by 15 coal mine units. Finally, a BP neural network model is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management system, and the results of AHP are used as samples. The BP neural network is trained and tested. The results show that the neural network model can obtain and preserve experts' knowledge, judgment and experience of risk management evaluation. It can be used in engineering practice to help coal mine enterprises to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management system quickly and scientifically.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TD771

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