中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全评价研究及应用

发布时间：2018-02-28 01:14

本文关键词： 铅锌矿资源国家经济安全评价 BP神经网络　出处：《江西理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：论文以中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全评价为研究对象,在详细综述国内外关于国家经济安全、国家经济安全评价研究的基础上,应用定性分析与定量研究相结合等方法对中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全评价进行综合分析,本论文的主要研究内容与结论如下:首先,详细综述了国内外国家经济安全的研究成果,对国内外关于矿产资源国家经济安全评价的研究成果进行了整理。其次,对中国铅锌矿资源供需市场进行了深入分析,利用BP人工神经网络建立了铅锌矿的需求情景模型,测算出2019-2031年中国精铅和精锌的消费量。测算结果说明虽然中国铅锌产资源丰富,但未来中国铅锌矿需求将逐步加大,需可持续利用开发铅锌矿资源。第三,通过变权原理对中国铅锌矿产资源的国家经济安全进行了评价,构建了由六个一级指标和十五个二级指标组成的中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全评价指标体系;通过变权评价建立了基于变权理论的中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全评价模型。第四,通过对2004-2019年的中国铅锌矿进行国家经济安全评价,并在此基础上对未来的铅锌矿产资源经济安全度进行了全面分析。研究结果表明:本文所使用的情景预测法与评价模型具有较好的理论与实际推广价值,可以为中国铅锌矿产资源国家经济安全研究提供一定的的理论依据与决策参考。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the national economic security evaluation of lead and zinc mineral resources in China as the research object, on the basis of a detailed review of the domestic and foreign research on the national economic security and the national economic security evaluation. A comprehensive analysis of the national economic safety assessment of lead and zinc mineral resources in China is carried out by means of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first of all, The research results of national economic security at home and abroad are summarized in detail, and the research results of national economic safety assessment of mineral resources at home and abroad are sorted out. Secondly, the supply and demand market of lead and zinc ore resources in China is deeply analyzed. Using BP artificial neural network, the demand scenario model of lead-zinc ore is established, and the consumption of refined lead and refined zinc in 2019-2031 in China is calculated. The results show that although China is rich in lead and zinc production resources, the demand for lead and zinc ore in China will gradually increase in the future. It is necessary to develop lead-zinc mineral resources in a sustainable way. Thirdly, the national economic security of China's lead-zinc mineral resources is evaluated by the principle of weight variation. A national economic security evaluation index system of lead-zinc mineral resources in China is constructed, which is composed of six primary indexes and fifteen second-class indexes. The national economic safety evaluation model of lead and zinc mineral resources in China based on variable weight theory is established by means of variable weight evaluation. 4th, and the national economic safety evaluation of lead and zinc deposits in China from 2004 to 2019 is carried out. On the basis of this, the economic safety degree of lead-zinc mineral resources in the future is comprehensively analyzed. The results show that the scenario prediction method and the evaluation model used in this paper have good theoretical and practical value in popularizing. It can provide some theoretical basis and decision reference for the study of national economic security of lead and zinc mineral resources in China.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.1

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